FLOOD DISASTER AND GDP GROWTH IN MALAYSIA

FLOOD DISASTER AND GDP GROWTH IN MALAYSIA
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马来西亚的洪涝灾害与 GDP 增长

DOI：
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Bakti Hasan Basri
Bakti Hasan Basri
中科院分区：
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文献类型：
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作者：
M. S. M. Shaari;M. Karim;Bakti Hasan Basri

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本文运用协整的自回归分布滞后(ARDL)界检验方法和短期关系的误差修正模型(ECM)检验了1960-2013年马来西亚洪涝灾害对GDP增长的影响。ADF、PP和KPSS单位根检验检验了序列的平稳性。研究结果表明，这四个洪水变量对GDP的长期和短期增长都有显著的影响。研究结果对GDP的长期和短期增长都有重要的影响。首先，政府应该制定适当的防洪计划，以避免洪灾对经济增长的负面影响 第二，在安全的地方储备充足的基本生活必需品，避免短期内出现短缺和暂时的挫折。
This paper seeks to examine the impact of flood disaster on GDP growth in Malaysia for the period of 1960 to 2013 by applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and the error correction model (ECM) for short run relationship.ADF, PP and KPSS unit root test examines the stationarity of the series. The results show that the series are cointegrated.The findings suggest that all four flood variables significantly affecting GDP growth in both long run and short run.The results of the study have important implications for the GDP growth in both long run and short run.First, the government should have a proper flood mitigation plan so as to avoid the negative impact of flood on GDP growth in the long run.Second, prepare sufficient stockpiles of basic necessities in a safe place to avoid shortages and temporary setback in the short run.