Simulation of the combined effects of solar cycle, quasi-biennial oscillation, and volcanic forcing on stratospheric ozone changes in recent decades
Simulation of the combined effects of solar cycle, quasi-biennial oscillation, and volcanic forcing on stratospheric ozone changes in recent decades
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近几十年来太阳周期、准两年期振荡和火山强迫对平流层臭氧变化的综合影响的模拟
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发表时间：
2003
期刊：
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通讯作者：
Anne K. Smith
中科院分区：
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作者：
H. Lee;Anne K. Smith
利用两个不同的年代际卫星臭氧数据集，通过多元回归分析计算了平流层臭氧对11年太阳通量变化的响应。结果表明，太阳回归系数在中纬度地区为正，在赤道平流层下区域为负，偶极子结构一致。由于数据记录的持续时间有限，回归分析可能无法将变异性与其他过程完全分离。其他可能对观测到的模式有所贡献的现象包括与准两年一次振荡（QBO）和两次主要火山爆发有关的臭氧变化：1982年的奇琼火山和1991年的皮纳图博火山。利用一个完全交互的NCAR二维化学-动态-辐射模型（模拟环境重要物种的化学、辐射和传输（SOCRATES）），研究了赤道QBO和主要火山爆发对11年太阳周期分析的影响。当在模式模拟中考虑这两种效应时，得到的臭氧太阳信号显示出与观测到的相似的偶极子模式。当仅考虑11年的太阳通量变化作为外部强迫时，臭氧太阳周期表现为单极子结构，其最大值位于赤道平流层上层，其响应一致为正。
[1] Stratospheric ozone responses to the 11-year solar flux variation are calculated from two different decadal scale satellite ozone data sets by multiple regression analysis. The results show consistent dipole structures with solar regression coefficients that are positive in midlatitudes and negative in the equatorial lower stratospheric region. Because of the limited duration of the data record, the regression analysis may not completely separate variability from other processes. Other phenomena that could contribute to the observed pattern include the ozone variations associated with the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and with two major volcanic eruptions: El Chichon in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo in 1991. A fully interactive NCAR two-dimensional chemical-dynamical-radiative model (Simulation of Chemistry, Radiation, and Transport of Environmentally Important Species (SOCRATES)) is used to investigate the effects of the equatorial QBO and the major volcanic eruptions on the 11-year solar cycle analysis. When both effects are considered in the model simulation, the resulting ozone solar signal shows a dipole pattern similar to that observed. When the 11-year solar flux variation is considered as the only external forcing, the resulting ozone solar cycle shows a monopole structure whose maximum is located in the equatorial upper stratosphere and whose response is uniformly positive.