On undermining the science?
On undermining the science?
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DOI：
10.1002/hyp.6396
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发表时间：
2006-09
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
K. Beven
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Beven
*通讯作者：Keith Beven，兰卡斯特大学兰卡斯特环境中心，兰卡斯特 LA1 4YQ，英国。电子邮件：k.beven@lancaster.ac.uk 在 2006 年于维也纳举行的欧洲地球物理联盟会议上，我受到了过分强调模型不确定性和模型拒绝问题的挑战（这不是第一次），这可能会损害利益相关者和模型预测用户对其所依据的科学的信心。因此，考虑这是否是合理的收费是很有趣的。我们可以把这个问题分成三个部分，依次考虑，以期在 HPToday 上就所提出的问题展开辩论：
*Correspondence to: Keith Beven, Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, UK. E-mail: k.beven@lancaster.ac.uk At the 2006 European Geophysical Union meeting in Vienna, I was challenged (and not for the first time) about overemphasising the issue of model uncertainty and model rejection, with the consequent danger of undermining the confidence of stakeholders and users of model predictions, in the science on which they are based. It is therefore interesting to consider whether this is a reasonable charge. We can break the issue down into three parts, which will be considered in turn with a view to starting a debate, in HPToday, about the issues raised: