How climate change affects extremes in maize and wheat yield in two cropping regions
How climate change affects extremes in maize and wheat yield in two cropping regions
复制标题
DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-13-00326.1
复制
发表时间：
2015-06
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
C. Ummenhofer;Hong Xu;T. Twine;E. Girvetz;H. McCarthy;Netra Chhetri;K. Nicholas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Ummenhofer;Hong Xu;T. Twine;E. Girvetz;H. McCarthy;Netra Chhetri;K. Nicholas
从耦合模式相互比较项目（CMIP 5）的第5阶段降尺度气候模式预测被用来迫使一个动态植被农业模式（Agro-IBIS）和模拟产量对历史气候的响应和两个未来的排放情景玉米在美国中西部和小麦在澳大利亚东南部。除了产量的平均变化，高产和低产年份的频率与当地水文气候条件的变化有关。特别强调的是在极端产量年的气候变量的季节性周期和联系，作物growth.While历史上高（低）产量在爱荷华州往往发生在异常湿（干）生长季节的年份，这是在未来加剧。到世纪末，爱荷华州生长季节温度的多模式平均值（MMM）预计将增加5°C以上，玉米产量预计将减少18%。对于澳大利亚东南部，低产量年份的频率在...
AbstractDownscaled climate model projections from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were used to force a dynamic vegetation agricultural model (Agro-IBIS) and simulate yield responses to historical climate and two future emissions scenarios for maize in the U.S. Midwest and wheat in southeastern Australia. In addition to mean changes in yield, the frequency of high- and low-yield years was related to changing local hydroclimatic conditions. Particular emphasis was on the seasonal cycle of climatic variables during extreme-yield years and links to crop growth.While historically high (low) yields in Iowa tend to occur during years with anomalous wet (dry) growing season, this is exacerbated in the future. By the end of the twenty-first century, the multimodel mean (MMM) of growing season temperatures in Iowa is projected to increase by more than 5°C, and maize yield is projected to decrease by 18%. For southeastern Australia, the frequency of low-yield years rises dramatically in ...