Seasonal Oscillation of Human Infection with Influenza A/H5N1 in Egypt and Indonesia
Seasonal Oscillation of Human Infection with Influenza A/H5N1 in Egypt and Indonesia
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0024042
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发表时间：
2011-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Morse, Stephen S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Murray, Eleanor J.;Morse, Stephen S.
截至2011年6月22日，据报告，甲型H5N1流感已造成329人死亡，562人感染，通常是由于接触受感染的家禽。H5N1型流感被描述为季节性流感。虽然有几项研究评估了禽类中H5N1的环境风险因素，但没有一项研究考虑到H5N1在人类中的季节性。此外，温度和湿度被怀疑是温带地区流感的驱动因素，但对于H5N1和其他流感病毒而言，热带地区的驱动因素尚不清楚。进行了一项分析，以确定人间H5N1病例是否与温度、降水和湿度的变化有关而季节性发生。所分析的数据是2005年1月1日（印度尼西亚）或2006年（埃及）至2008年5月1日期间在印度尼西亚（135例）和埃及（50例）发生的H5N1人间病例，这些病例来自世卫组织病例报告，以及NOAA国家气候数据中心提供的平均每日天气条件。傅里叶时间序列分析用于确定病例的季节性以及天气条件与人类H5N1发病之间的关系。印度尼西亚人间H5N1病例的发生周期为1.67年/周期（p= 0.94），埃及的高峰出现在降水较低、温度、绝对湿度和相对湿度较埃及平均日条件温和的时候。与埃及H5N1人类发病高峰相吻合的天气条件表明，人类感染可能主要是通过与受感染家禽密切接触后的飞沫传播发生的。
As of June 22, 2011, influenza A/H5N1 has caused a reported 329 deaths and 562 cases in humans, typically attributed to contact with infected poultry. Influenza H5N1 has been described as seasonal. Although several studies have evaluated environmental risk factors for H5N1 in poultry, none have considered seasonality of H5N1 in humans. In addition, temperature and humidity are suspected to drive influenza in temperate regions, but drivers in the tropics are unknown, for H5N1 as well as other influenza viruses. An analysis was conducted to determine whether human H5N1 cases occur seasonally in association with changes in temperature, precipitation and humidity. Data analyzed were H5N1 human cases in Indonesia (n = 135) and Egypt (n = 50), from January 1, 2005 (Indonesia) or 2006 (Egypt) through May 1, 2008 obtained from WHO case reports, and average daily weather conditions obtained from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. Fourier time series analysis was used to determine seasonality of cases and associations between weather conditions and human H5N1 incidence. Human H5N1 cases in Indonesia occurred with a period of 1.67 years/cycle (p= 0.94) and peaked in Egypt when precipitation was low, and temperature, absolute humidity and relative humidity were moderate compared to the average daily conditions in Egypt. Weather conditions coinciding with peak human H5N1 incidence in Egypt suggest that human infection may be occurring primarily via droplet transmission from close contact with infected poultry.