Dominant effect of relative tropical Atlantic warming on major hurricane occurrence
Dominant effect of relative tropical Atlantic warming on major hurricane occurrence
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DOI：
10.1126/science.aat6711
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发表时间：
2018-11-16
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Hsu, P-C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Murakami, H.;Levin, E.;Hsu, P-C.
在这里，我们探索可能与2017年大西洋主要飓风活动增强有关的因素。利用一套高分辨率模式试验，我们发现2017年主要飓风的增加主要不是由太平洋的拉尼娜条件造成的，而是主要由热带北大西洋明显的温暖海面条件引发的。此外，我们将北大西洋表面变暖的类似模式叠加到长期海洋表面温度上升的数据上(温室气体浓度增加和气溶胶减少的产物)，以表明这种变暖趋势可能会导致未来更多的主要飓风。控制大西洋主要飓风活动的关键因素似乎是热带大西洋相对于全球海洋其他地区变暖的程度。
Here we explore factors potentially linked to the enhanced major hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean during 2017. Using a suite of high-resolution model experiments, we show that the increase in 2017 major hurricanes was not primarily caused by La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean but rather triggered mainly by pronounced warm sea surface conditions in the tropical North Atlantic. Further, we superimpose a similar pattern of North Atlantic surface warming on data for long-term increasing sea surface temperature (a product of increases in greenhouse gas concentrations and decreases in aerosols) to show that this warming trend will likely lead to even higher numbers of major hurricanes in the future. The key factor controlling Atlantic major hurricane activity appears to be the degree to which the tropical Atlantic warms relative to the rest of the global ocean.