The Effect of Minimum Wages on Low-Wage Jobs: Evidence from the United States Using a Bunching Estimator
The Effect of Minimum Wages on Low-Wage Jobs: Evidence from the United States Using a Bunching Estimator
复制标题
最低工资对低工资工作的影响：来自美国使用聚束估计量的证据
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
13.7
通讯作者：
Ben Zipperer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Doruk Cengiz;Arindrajit Dubé;A. Lindner;Ben Zipperer
我们利用1979年至2016年间美国138个主要州的最低工资变化，采用差异中差异方法估计了最低工资对低薪工作的影响。我们首先估算了最低工资增长对整个小时工资分配的就业变化的影响。然后，我们将重点放在工资分布的底部部分，并将支付新最低工资或略高于新最低工资的超额工作数量与支付低于新最低工资的缺失工作数量进行比较，以推断就业效应。我们发现，低薪工作的总数在增长后的五年内基本保持不变。与此同时，最低工资对平均收入的直接影响被工资分配底部的适度工资溢出效应放大了。我们对详细的人口统计群体的估计表明，失业的减少不能用工资分配底部的劳动替代来解释。当我们考虑更高的最低工资水平时，我们也没有发现失业的证据。然而，我们确实发现了一些贸易部门就业减少的证据。我们还展示了如何通过工资分类来分解总体就业效应，以一种透明的方式来评估估计的合理性。
We estimate the effect of minimum wages on low-wage jobs using 138 prominent state-level minimum wage changes between 1979 and 2016 in the United States using a difference-in-differences approach. We first estimate the effect of the minimum wage increase on employment changes by wage bins throughout the hourly wage distribution. We then focus on the bottom part of the wage distribution and compare the number of excess jobs paying at or slightly above the new minimum wage to the missing jobs paying below it to infer the employment effect. We find that the overall number of low-wage jobs remained essentially unchanged over the five years following the increase. At the same time, the direct effect of the minimum wage on average earnings was amplified by modest wage spillovers at the bottom of the wage distribution. Our estimates by detailed demographic groups show that the lack of job loss is not explained by labor-labor substitution at the bottom of the wage distribution. We also find no evidence of disemployment when we consider higher levels of minimum wages. However, we do find some evidence of reduced employment in tradeable sectors. We also show how decomposing the overall employment effect by wage bins allows a transparent way of assessing the plausibility of estimates.