Energy efficiency to reduce residential electricity and natural gas use under climate change.
Energy efficiency to reduce residential electricity and natural gas use under climate change.
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DOI：
10.1038/ncomms14916
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发表时间：
2017-05-15
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Chester MV
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Reyna JL;Chester MV
气候变化可能会显著影响消费者对建筑能源的需求，因为温度的变化可能会改变供暖和制冷负荷。气候变暖还可能导致建筑物更多地采用和使用制冷技术。我们在多个气候变化预测下评估了加州洛杉矶的居民电力和天然气需求，并调查了能源效率抵消需求增长的潜力。我们根据计量数据校准住宅能源使用量，考虑到建筑材料和家用电器的差异。在气温上升的情况下，我们发现，在没有政策干预的情况下，2020年至2060年期间，居民用电需求可能增长高达41%-87%。然而，旨在升级供暖/制冷系统和电器的激进政策可能导致用电量增长低至28%，有可能避免安装新的发电能力。因此，我们建议积极提高能效，结合低碳发电来源，以抵消住宅能源需求预期增长的影响。气候变化可能会改变建筑的能源需求。在这里，作者量化了洛杉矶县居民电力和天然气需求的变化，发现气温上升可能会使2020年至2060年期间的电力需求增加41%-87%，但提高能效可能会将这一增幅降至28%。
Climate change could significantly affect consumer demand for energy in buildings, as changing temperatures may alter heating and cooling loads. Warming climates could also lead to the increased adoption and use of cooling technologies in buildings. We assess residential electricity and natural gas demand in Los Angeles, California under multiple climate change projections and investigate the potential for energy efficiency to offset increased demand. We calibrate residential energy use against metered data, accounting for differences in building materials and appliances. Under temperature increases, we find that without policy intervention, residential electricity demand could increase by as much as 41–87% between 2020 and 2060. However, aggressive policies aimed at upgrading heating/cooling systems and appliances could result in electricity use increases as low as 28%, potentially avoiding the installation of new generation capacity. We therefore recommend aggressive energy efficiency, in combination with low-carbon generation sources, to offset projected increases in residential energy demand. Climate change may alter building energy demand. Here, the authors quantify changes in residential electricity and natural gas demand in Los Angeles County and find that rising temperatures may increase electricity demand by 41–87% between 2020 and 2060, but improved efficiency could lower this increase to 28%.