Intensified Likelihood of Concurrent Warm and Dry Months Attributed to Anthropogenic Climate Change
Intensified Likelihood of Concurrent Warm and Dry Months Attributed to Anthropogenic Climate Change
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DOI：
10.1029/2021wr030411
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发表时间：
2022-06-01
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
AghaKouchak, Amir
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Chiang, Felicia;Greve, Peter;AghaKouchak, Amir
探测和归因研究一般考察温度和降水等个别气候变量。因此，我们对气候变化对相关极端气候和复合事件的影响缺乏深刻的理解，而这些事件近年来变得更加普遍。在这里，我们提出了一个月尺度的复合温暖和干燥归因研究，检查CMIP6气候模式的影响和不人为强迫。我们发现，大多数地区都经历了大量的增加，同时温暖和干燥的月份在历史模拟与人类排放，而没有连贯的变化发生在历史上的自然模拟没有人类排放。在全球范围内，由于人为排放，复合暖干月的可能性增加了2.7倍。通过这种多元的视角，我们强调，人为排放不仅影响了个别极端，但也复合极端。由于多变量极端事件的风险被放大，我们的研究结果可以为相关气候影响的风险提供重要的见解。
Detection and attribution studies generally examine individual climate variables such as temperature and precipitation. Thus, we lack a strong understanding of climate change impacts on correlated climate extremes and compound events, which have become more common in recent years. Here we present a monthly-scale compound warm and dry attribution study, examining CMIP6 climate models with and without the influence of anthropogenic forcing. We show that most regions have experienced large increases in concurrent warm and dry months in historical simulations with human emissions, while no coherent change has occurred in historical natural-only simulations without human emissions. At the global scale, the likelihood of compound warm-dry months has increased 2.7 times due to anthropogenic emissions. With this multivariate perspective, we highlight that anthropogenic emissions have not only impacted individual extremes but also compound extremes. Due to amplified risks from multivariate extremes, our results can provide important insights on the risks of associated climate impacts.