Trends and change points in surface and bottom thermal environments of the US Northeast Continental Shelf Ecosystem
Trends and change points in surface and bottom thermal environments of the US Northeast Continental Shelf Ecosystem
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DOI：
10.1111/fog.12485
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发表时间：
2020-06-23
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Powell, Eric N.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Friedland, Kevin D.;Morse, Ryan E.;Powell, Eric N.
温度是决定海洋资源物种生境的一个重要因素。虽然卫星传感器可以测量海洋表面温度，但我们依靠现场测量来描述底栖生物的栖息地。通过对船舶测量数据进行插值，得到了美国东北大陆架春季和秋季、地表和底部温度场的网格时间序列。在研究期间（1968-2018年），地表和底部温度以每十年0.18-0.31摄氏度的速度上升，在较短的时间内（2004-2018年），以每十年0.26-1.49摄氏度的速度上升。一项变化点分析表明，2011年以乔治滩和楠塔基特浅滩为中心的地表水开始变暖；在接下来的几年里，东北陆架的大部分地区都经历了地表温度的变化。对海底温度的类似分析表明，2008年缅因湾东部开始出现变暖现象；在接下来的几年里，温度的变化点在缅因湾进一步向西，最终在2010年到达大西洋中部湾。底水变暖的空间格局与众所周知的将变暖的北大西洋海水平流到缅因湾的海洋学格局相一致。两层变暖的时空变化进程表明，它们是由不同的强迫因子驱动的。然后，我们将这些趋势和变化点与低营养级和高营养级生物的响应进行了比较，并确定了一些关键饲料和渔业物种的分布和生物量的同步变化。
Temperature is an important factor in defining the habitats of marine resource species. While satellite sensors operationally measure ocean surface temperatures, we depend on in situ measurements to characterize benthic habitats. Ship-based measurements were interpolated to develop a time series of gridded spring and fall, surface and bottom temperature fields for the US Northeast Shelf. Surface and bottom temperatures have increased over the study period (1968-2018) at rates between 0.18-0.31 degrees C per decade and over a shorter time period (2004-2018) at rates between 0.26-1.49 degrees C per decade. A change point analysis suggests that a warming regime began in the surface waters in 2011 centered on Georges Bank and the Nantucket Shoals; in following years, most of the Northeast Shelf had experienced a shift in surface temperature. A similar analysis of bottom temperature suggests a warming regime began in 2008 in the eastern Gulf of Maine; in following years, change points in temperature occurred further to the west in the Gulf of Maine, finally reaching the Middle Atlantic Bight by 2010. The spatial pattern in bottom water warming is consistent with well-known oceanographic patterns that advect warming North Atlantic waters into the Gulf of Maine. The varying spatial and temporal progression of warming in the two layers suggests they were actuated by different sets of forcing factors. We then compared these trends and change points to responses of lower and higher trophic level organisms and identified a number of coincident shifts in distribution and biomass of key forage and fisheries species.