MULTILEVEL RECIDIVISM PREDICTION Incorporating Neighborhood Socioeconomic Ecology in Juvenile Justice Risk Assessment
MULTILEVEL RECIDIVISM PREDICTION Incorporating Neighborhood Socioeconomic Ecology in Juvenile Justice Risk Assessment
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DOI：
10.1177/0093854811407026
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发表时间：
2011-08-01
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Davidson, William S., II
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Onifade, Eyitayo;Petersen, Jodi;Davidson, William S., II
风险评估，如青年服务水平/案例管理清单(YLS/CMI)，根据近端风险因素预测犯罪结果，可受益于将远端风险因素纳入其预测模型。本研究以青少年试用者为样本，以区块组SES资料为样本，探讨YLS/CMI对不同犯罪来源社区类型、以个人为中心风险水平相近的青少年的差异预测效度。这项研究需要对街区群体社会经济变量进行探索性因素分析，并将其用于聚类分析，以创建引发犯罪的邻里类型系统。再犯(1级)、危险评分(1级)、邻里社会支持因素(2级)和邻里类型(2级)之间的关系采用分层Logistic回归分析。变量之间存在显著的交互作用，表明社区社会经济生态调节了风险-累犯关系。讨论了对实践和政策的影响。
Risk assessments such as the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) that predict delinquency outcomes based on proximal risk factors may benefit from an incorporation of distal risk factors in their prediction models. This study utilized a juvenile probationer sample and block group SES data in exploring the differential predictive validity of the YLS/CMI with youth of similar person-centered risk levels from different criminogenic neighborhood types. The study entailed an exploratory factor analysis of block group socioeconomic variables, which were used in a cluster analysis to create criminogenic neighborhood typology system. Hierarchical logistic regression was used to analyze the relationship among recidivism (Level 1), risk score (Level 1), neighborhood SES factors (Level 2), and neighborhood types (Level 2). Significant interactions were found across levels among variables, suggesting the risk-recidivism relationship was moderated by neighborhood socioeconomic ecology. Implications for practice and policy are discussed.