COVID-19 lockdowns highlight a risk of increasing ozone pollution in European urban areas
COVID-19 lockdowns highlight a risk of increasing ozone pollution in European urban areas
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DOI：
10.5194/acp-21-4169-2021
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发表时间：
2021-03-18
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Carslaw, David C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Grange, Stuart K.;Lee, James D.;Carslaw, David C.
于二零二零年三月，欧洲各地实施封城形式的非药物干预措施，以紧急减少导致COVID-19疾病的严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）的传播。欧洲经济的大幅削减对大气成分产生了广泛的影响，特别是对二氧化氮（NO2）和臭氧（O-3）的影响。为了研究这些变化，我们分析了2020年2月至7月期间欧洲102个城市地区和34个国家的246个环境空气污染监测点的数据。使用机器学习模型创建反事实的、一切照旧的空气质量时间序列，以解释自然天气变化。在整个欧洲，我们估计，NO2浓度分别为34%和32%，低于各自的交通和城市背景位置的预期，而O-3是30%和21%高（在相同的各自的环境）在最大限度地限制流动性。为了将2020年的变化纳入背景，计算了自2010年以来的平均NO2趋势，2020年欧洲城市地区经历的变化相当于7.6年的平均NO2减少量（或2028年可能预期的浓度）。尽管NO2浓度降低了约三分之一，总氧化剂（O-x）变化不大，这表明NO2的减少被O-3的增加所取代。封锁期表明，除非采取额外的缓解措施，否则欧洲城市地区预计未来NO2的减少可能导致城市O-3污染的普遍增加。
In March 2020, non-pharmaceutical intervention measures in the form of lockdowns were applied across Europe to urgently reduce the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus which causes the COVID-19 disease. The aggressive curtailing of the European economy had widespread impacts on the atmospheric composition, particularly for nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O-3). To investigate these changes, we analyse data from 246 ambient air pollution monitoring sites in 102 urban areas and 34 countries in Europe between February and July 2020. Counterfactual, business-as-usual air quality time series are created using machine-learning models to account for natural weather variability. Across Europe, we estimate that NO2 concentrations were 34% and 32% lower than expected for respective traffic and urban background locations, whereas O-3 was 30% and 21% higher (in the same respective environments) at the point of maximum restriction on mobility. To put the 2020 changes into context, average NO2 trends since 2010 were calculated, and the changes experienced across European urban areas in 2020 was equivalent to 7.6 years of average NO2 reduction (or concentrations which might be anticipated in 2028). Despite NO2 concentrations decreasing by approximately a third, total oxidant (O-x) changed little, suggesting that the reductions in NO2 were substituted by increases in O-3. The lockdown period demonstrated that the expected future reductions in NO2 in European urban areas are likely to lead to widespread increases in urban O-3 pollution unless additional mitigation measures are introduced.