Climate Impacts of COVID-19 Induced Emission Changes
Climate Impacts of COVID-19 Induced Emission Changes
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DOI：
10.1029/2020gl091805
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发表时间：
2021-02-16
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Watson-Parris, D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gettelman, A.;Lamboll, R.;Watson-Parris, D.
2019冠状病毒病大流行导致2020年经济活动发生巨大变化。我们在两个地球系统模型（esm）中使用2020年排放变化的估计值来模拟COVID-19经济变化的影响。微推模拟的集合用于从气象变率中分离小信号。气溶胶和前体排放的减少，主要是黑碳和硫酸盐（SO4）的减少，导致通过气溶胶-云相互作用的人为气溶胶冷却总量的减少。平均总体有效辐射强迫（ERF）在2020年春季达到+0.29 +/- 0.15 Wm（-2）的峰值。云性质的变化小于2020年观测到的变化。这些变化对区域地表温度的影响范围高达+0.3 K。这些气溶胶变化对全球地表温度的峰值影响非常小（+0.03 K）。然而，由于受COVID-19影响的排放，气溶胶变化是对辐射强迫和温度变化的最大贡献，比臭氧、二氧化碳和尾迹效应更大。
The COVID-19 pandemic led to dramatic changes in economic activity in 2020. We use estimates of emission changes for 2020 in two Earth System Models (ESMs) to simulate the impacts of the COVID-19 economic changes. Ensembles of nudged simulations are used to separate small signals from meteorological variability. Reductions in aerosol and precursor emissions, chiefly black carbon and sulfate (SO4), led to reductions in total anthropogenic aerosol cooling through aerosol-cloud interactions. The average overall Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF) peaks at +0.29 +/- 0.15 Wm(-2) in spring 2020. Changes in cloud properties are smaller than observed changes during 2020. Impacts of these changes on regional land surface temperature range up to +0.3 K. The peak impact of these aerosol changes on global surface temperature is very small (+0.03 K). However, the aerosol changes are the largest contribution to radiative forcing and temperature changes as a result of COVID-19 affected emissions, larger than ozone, CO2 and contrail effects.