Streamflow responses to climate change and LUCC in a semi-arid watershed of Chinese Loess Plateau
Streamflow responses to climate change and LUCC in a semi-arid watershed of Chinese Loess Plateau
复制标题
中国黄土高原半干旱流域径流对气候变化和土地利用变化的响应
DOI：
10.1007/s40333-017-0095-2
复制
发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Wan Fang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li Qingyun;Sun Yanwei;Yuan Wenlin;Lyu Subing;Wan Fang
气候变化和土地利用/覆盖变化（LUCC）是影响流域水文情势的两个主要因素。采用Mann-Kendall检验方法，分析了黄土高原西北部吉河流域1962 - 2008年径流、降水、气温和潜在蒸散量的变化趋势。利用弹性法分别定量分析了径流对气候变化和土地利用/覆被变化的响应。结果表明，径流量在1971年出现了一个转折点，出现了急剧下降的趋势，而降水量和PET变化不明显。结果还表明，温度显著上升，特别是自20世纪90年代以来，在整个研究期间（1962-2008年）增加了约1.74°C。利用土地利用转换矩阵分析，发现20世纪70 - 90年代坡耕地向梯田转化显著，2000年后退耕还林（草）还林（绿色）工程使森林覆盖率相对显著增加。径流量减少主要是由LUCC引起的，其贡献率高达90.2%，而气候变化对径流量减少的贡献率仅为9.8%。虽然弹性法和线性回归模型的分析结果并不完全一致，但两者均表明LUCC（人类活动）是导致吉河流域1962 - 2008年径流量减少的主要因素。
Climate change and Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) have been identified as two primary factors affecting watershed hydrological regime. This study analyzed the trends of streamflow, precipitation, air temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) from 1962 to 2008 in the Jihe watershed in northwestern Loess Plateau of China using the Mann-Kendall test. The streamflow responses to climate change and LUCC were quantified independently by the elasticity method. The results show that the streamflow presented a dramatic decline with a turning point occurred in 1971, while the precipitation and PET did not change significantly. The results also show that the temperature rose markedly especially since 1990s with an approximate increase of 1.74°C over the entire research period (1962–2008). Using land use transition matrix, we found that slope cropland was significantly converted to terrace between 1970s and 1990s and that forest cover increased relatively significantly because of the Grain for Green Project after 2000. The streamflow reduction was predominantly caused by LUCC and its contribution reached up to 90.2%, while the contribution of climate change to streamflow decline was only 9.8%. Although the analytical results between the elasticity method and linear regression model were not satisfactorily consistent, they both indicated that LUCC (human activity) was the major factor causing streamflow decline in the Jihe watershed from 1962 to 2008.