Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment
Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-005-3612-9
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发表时间：
2005-03
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Allison M. Thomson;Robert A. Brown;Norman J. Rosenberg;R. Izaurralde;V. Benson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Allison M. Thomson;Robert A. Brown;Norman J. Rosenberg;R. Izaurralde;V. Benson
在这里，我们模拟旱地农业在美国，以评估潜在的未来农业生产下的一套大气环流模式（GCM）为基础的气候变化情景。计算了三种主要粮食作物--玉米、大豆和冬小麦以及两种饲料作物--苜蓿和三叶草干草的全国总产量，并计算了每种作物的实际核心生产面积（CPA）。一般来说，全球平均温度（GMT）升高会减少产量，而大气二氧化碳浓度（[CO2]）升高会增加产量。根据所采用的气候变化情景，所研究的作物的全国总产量与目前水平相比最多可增加或减少25%。影响在区域上更为显著，作物产量与基线水平相比变化超过±50%。对每种作物目前可能的生产区的分析表明，最有可能受到气候变化影响的地区是目前种植这些作物的地区的边缘地区。研究发现，作物产量变异主要受当地天气和地理特征的影响，而不是受气候模式和大气成分大规模变化的影响。美国未来的农业潜力将受到这里预测的气候变化的显著影响。作物反应的性质将主要取决于降水模式变化的程度以及经历的变暖程度。
Here we simulate dryland agriculture in the United States in order to assess potential future agricultural production under a set of general circulation model (GCM)-based climate change scenarios. The total national production of three major grain crops—corn, soybeans, and winter wheat—and two forage crops—alfalfa and clover hay—is calculated for the actual present day core production area (CPA) of each of these crops. In general, higher global mean temperature (GMT) reduces production and higher atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) increases production. Depending on the climatic change scenarios employed overall national production of the crops studied changes by up to plus or minus 25% from present-day levels. Impacts are more significant regionally, with crop production varying by greater than ±50% from baseline levels. Analysis of currently possible production areas (CPPAs) for each crop indicates that the regions most likely to be affected by climate change are those on the margins of the areas in which they are currently grown. Crop yield variability was found to be primarily influenced by local weather and geographic features rather than by large-scale changes in climate patterns and atmospheric composition. Future US agronomic potential will be significantly affected by the changes in climate projected here. The nature of the crop response will depend primarily on to what extent precipitation patterns change and also on the degree of warming experienced.