Physically Based Global Downscaling: Climate Change Projections for a Full Century
Physically Based Global Downscaling: Climate Change Projections for a Full Century
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DOI：
10.1088/1742-6596/16/1/047
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发表时间：
2006-05
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
S. Ghan;T. Shippert
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Ghan;T. Shippert
本文利用全球大气/陆地模式和嵌入的亚网格地形图，利用海洋表面条件和辐射成分浓度模拟了1977-2100年气候变化情景。根据高分辨率高程数据集，在10个地形复杂的地区模拟多个高程等级的气候变量。对模拟气候变化的分析得出以下结论。降水量变化幅度很大，有的地区随海拔升高降水量增加较多，有的地区随海拔升高降水量减少较多，有的地区变化不大。在某些地区，降水变化的标志取决于地表海拔。地表气温的变化相当均匀，在一个区域内最大和最小的变化最多相差两倍；在大多数情况下，气温随着海拔的升高而升高。雪水的变化高度依赖于海拔高度。绝对变化通常随高度增加而增加，而相对变化则减小。在积雪较多的地方，人为设定的雪水上限在很大程度上限制了雪水对气候变化的敏感性。气候变化对区域平均雪水的模拟影响差异较大，以雪水上限为主导的区域影响较小，季节性和永久性积雪混合的区域影响中等，而永久性积雪较少的区域影响较深。
A global atmosphere/land model with an embedded subgrid orography scheme is used to simulate the period 1977-2100 using ocean surface conditions and radiative constituent concentrations for a climate change scenario. Climate variables simulated for multiple elevation classes are mapping according to a high-resolution elevation dataset in ten regions with complex terrain. Analysis of changes in the simulated climate leads to the following conclusions. Changes in precipitation vary widely, with precipitation increasing more with increasing altitude in some region, decreasing more with altitude in others, and changing little in still others. In some regions the sign of the precipitation change depends on surface elevation. Changes in surface air temperature are rather uniform, with at most a two-fold difference between the largest and smallest changes within a region; in most cases the warming increases with altitude. Changes in snow water are highly dependent on altitude. Absolute changes usually increase with altitude, while relative changes decrease. In places where snow accumulates, an artificial upper bound on snow water limits the sensitivity of snow water to climate change considerably. The simulated impact of climate change on regional mean snow water varies widely, with little impact in regions in which the upper bound on snow water is the dominant snow water sink, moderate impact in regions with a mixture of seasonal and permanent snow, and profound impacts on regions with little permanent snow.