Latent multinomial models for extended batch-mark data
Latent multinomial models for extended batch-mark data
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DOI：
10.1111/biom.13789
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发表时间：
2022-11-22
期刊：
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
McCrea，Rachel S. S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhang，Wei;Bonner，Simon J. J.;McCrea，Rachel S. S.
批量标记是常见的和有用的许多捕获-再捕获研究中，由于各种限制，如时间，成本，或标记难度不能单独标记应用。当使用批标记时，观察到的数据不是单个捕获历史，而是一组计数，包括每次捕获时首次标记的个体数量，重新捕获的标记个体数量，捕获但未标记释放的个体数量（适用于某些研究）。将传统的捕获-再捕获模型拟合到此类数据需要识别所有可能的捕获-再捕获历史集，这些历史集可能导致观察到的数据，即使对于少量捕获场合，这在计算上也是不可行的。在本文中，我们提出了一个隐多项式模型来处理这些数据，其中观察到的计数向量是隐向量的不可逆线性变换，该隐向量遵循依赖于模型参数的多项式分布。通过基于鞍点近似的极大似然方法可以有效地拟合潜在多项模型。模型框架非常灵活，可以应用于不同研究设计收集的数据。仿真研究表明，所提模型的所有参数都得到了可靠的估计结果。我们将该模型应用于分析马达加斯加中部使用批标记收集的金蝠鲼数据。
Batch marking is common and useful for many capture–recapture studies where individual marks cannot be applied due to various constraints such as timing, cost, or marking difficulty. When batch marks are used, observed data are not individual capture histories but a set of counts including the numbers of individuals first marked, marked individuals that are recaptured, and individuals captured but released without being marked (applicable to some studies) on each capture occasion. Fitting traditional capture–recapture models to such data requires one to identify all possible sets of capture–recapture histories that may lead to the observed data, which is computationally infeasible even for a small number of capture occasions. In this paper, we propose a latent multinomial model to deal with such data, where the observed vector of counts is a non-invertible linear transformation of a latent vector that follows a multinomial distribution depending on model parameters. The latent multinomial model can be fitted efficiently through a saddlepoint approximation based maximum likelihood approach. The model framework is very flexible and can be applied to data collected with different study designs. Simulation studies indicate that reliable estimation results are obtained for all parameters of the proposed model. We apply the model to analysis of golden mantella data collected using batch marks in Central Madagascar.