Seven deadly sins of contemporary quantitative political analysis
Seven deadly sins of contemporary quantitative political analysis
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DOI：
10.1177/0022343313499597
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发表时间：
2014-03-01
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Schrodt, Philip A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Schrodt, Philip A.
技术变革、方法论的漂移和一定程度的智力懒惰，特别是在科学哲学方面，使当代定量政治分析积累了一系列功能失调的习惯，使当代许多研究或多或少变得毫无意义。我将这七宗罪定义为：忽略共线性影响的垃圾桶模型;在缺乏预测的情况下进行科学前解释;对少量数据集进行过度重新分析;使用复杂的方法而不理解潜在的假设;将频率主义统计解释为贝叶斯统计;未能考虑替代结构的线性统计单一文化;混淆统计控制和实验控制。解决这些问题的答案不是放弃定量方法，而是在理论和数据的共同推动下，从事扎实、深思熟虑、原创的工作。文章最后提出了改变目前做法的建议，这些建议可能有助于改善其中一些问题。
A combination of technological change, methodological drift and a certain degree of intellectual sloth, particularly with respect to philosophy of science, has allowed contemporary quantitative political analysis to accumulate a series of dysfunctional habits that have rendered much of contemporary research more or less meaningless. I identify these seven deadly sins' as: Garbage can models that ignore the effects of collinearity; Pre-scientific explanation in the absence of prediction; Excessive reanalysis of a small number of datasets; Using complex methods without understanding the underlying assumptions; Interpreting frequentist statistics as if they were Bayesian; A linear statistical monoculture that fails to consider alternative structures; Confusing statistical controls and experimental controls. The answer to these problems is not to abandon quantitative approaches, but rather engage in solid, thoughtful, original work driven by an appreciation of both theory and data. The article closes with suggestions for changes in current practice that might serve to ameliorate some of these problems.