Old habits die hard: Path dependency and behavioral lock-in
Old habits die hard: Path dependency and behavioral lock-in
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DOI：
10.1080/00213624.2004.11506696
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发表时间：
2004-06-01
影响因子：
0.7
通讯作者：
Stack, M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Barnes, W;Gartland, M;Stack, M
越来越多的学者开始认为，市场力量可能不会自动选择最好的技术或产品。在20世纪80年代和90年代，Paul大卫和Brian Arthur发表了几篇论文，他们在论文中断言，次优或低效的技术可能成为”锁定”的行业标准，并且，在存在显著网络效应的情况下，这些低效可能会持续很长一段时间（大卫1985;亚瑟1989，1990）。[1]大卫在这一领域最著名的作品是他对QWERTY打字机键盘布局的讨论，亚瑟最受欢迎的例子是关于VCR格式的霸权之争（大卫1985;亚瑟1990）。他们的结论是，QWERTY键盘和VHS磁带格式的商业成功取决于其特定的历史路径，而不是产品最佳性或优越性的简单反映。Robin科万还发表了几个关于路径依赖的引人注目的例子（1990，1996）。在他1990年的文章中，他详细概述了核能反应堆的发展，他认为轻水反应堆成为主导技术，尽管它“无论是经济上还是技术上都不是最好的技术。他的结论是，”首先沿着学习曲线沿着取得巨大进步的技术将占据主导地位。在这些类型的故事中，关键的解释变量是网络效应的存在：“如果其他消费者也使用一种产品，消费者通常会对它赋予更高的价值。”
An increasing number of scholars have begun to argue that market forces may not automatically select the best technologies or products. During the 1980s and 1990s, Paul David and Brian Arthur published several papers in which they asserted that sub-optimal or inefficient technologies can become" locked in" as industry standards, and, in instances where there are significant network effects, these inefficiencies may persist for extended periods of time (David 1985; Arthur 1989, 1990). 1 David's best-known work in this area is his discussion of the layout of the QWERTY typewriter keyboard, and Arthur's most popular example concerns the struggle for supremacy over VCR format (David 1985; Arthur 1990). They concluded that the commercial success of the QWERTY keyboard and the VHS tape format were dependent on their particular historical paths and was not a simple reflection of product optimality or superiority. Robin Cowan has also published several compelling examples of path dependency (1990, 1996). In his 1990 essay, he put forward a detailed overview of the development of nuclear power reactors in which he argued that light water reactors emerged as the dominant technology despite the fact that it was" not the best technology, either economically or technically." He concluded that the" technology which first makes large advances along its learning curve will emerge dominant." The key explanatory variable in these types of stories is the presence of network effects:" Consumers often place higher value on a product if other consumers also use it.