A CONSTITUTIVE LAW FOR RATE OF EARTHQUAKE PRODUCTION AND ITS APPLICATION TO EARTHQUAKE CLUSTERING
A CONSTITUTIVE LAW FOR RATE OF EARTHQUAKE PRODUCTION AND ITS APPLICATION TO EARTHQUAKE CLUSTERING
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DOI：
10.1029/93jb02581
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发表时间：
1994-02-10
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
DIETERICH, J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
DIETERICH, J
地震活动被模拟为一系列的地震成核事件，其中分布的初始条件的人口的成核源和应力历史控制地震的时间。该模型实现了使用的不稳定断层滑移的故障与实验得出的速率和状态相关的故障属性的成核的解决方案。这产生了一个一般的状态变量的地震生产率从施加应力的历史本构制定。为了说明和检验该模型，探讨了应力阶跃后地震活动的一些特征。本文认为，成核时间对前期地震引起的应力变化的敏感性是地震丛集的各种特征的根源。该模型给出了大森余震的特征衰减规律，并从应力变化和应力率两个方面解释了余震参数。地震数据似乎支持一个模型预测，余震持续时间，定义为率返回到背景地震活动率的时间，是成比例的主震复发时间。观测到的地震对的空间和时间聚类产生的结果的空间依赖性的应力变化的第一个事件的对和应力敏感的时间依赖的成核。本构方程的应用不限于简单的应力阶跃模型研究这里。它可以应用于强调任意复杂性的历史。聚类现象建模的明显成功表明，使用该公式来估计短期到中期的地震概率发生后的其他地震和反演的时间变化的地震率的驱动应力的变化的可能性。
Seismicity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events in which the distribution of initial conditions over the population of nucleation sources and stressing history control the timing of earthquakes. The model is implemented using solutions for nucleation of unstable fault slip on faults with experimentally derived rate- and state-dependent fault properties. This yields a general state-variable constitutive formulation for rate of earthquake production resulting from an applied stressing history. To illustrate and test the model some characteristics of seismicity following a stress step have been explored. It is proposed that various features of earthquake clustering arise from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and interprets aftershock parameters in terms of stress change and stressing rate. Earthquake data appear to support a model prediction that aftershock duration, defined as the time for rates to return to the background seismicity rate, is proportional to mainshock recurrence time. Observed spatial and temporal clustering of earthquake pairs arises as a consequence of the spatial dependence of stress changes of the first event of the pair and stress-sensitive time-dependent nucleation. Applications of the constitutive formulation are not restricted to the simple stress step models investigated here. It may be applied to stressing histories of arbitrary complexity. The apparent success at modeling clustering phenomena suggests the possibility of using the formulation to estimate short- to intermediate-term earthquake probabilities following occurrence of other earthquakes and for inversion of temporal variations of earthquake rates for changes in driving stress.