Changing contextual factors from baseline to 9-months post-HIV diagnosis predict 5-year mortality in Durban, South Africa.

Changing contextual factors from baseline to 9-months post-HIV diagnosis predict 5-year mortality in Durban, South Africa.
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DOI:
10.1080/09540121.2020.1837338
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发表时间:
2021-12
期刊:
影响因子:
1.7
通讯作者:
Parker RA
Parker RA
中科院分区:
医学4区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Bassett IV;Xu A;Giddy J;Bogart LM;Boulle A;Millham L;Losina E;Parker RA

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Changes in an individual’s contextual factors following HIV diagnosis may influence long-term outcomes. We evaluated how changes to contextual factors between HIV diagnosis and 9-month follow-up predict 5-year mortality among HIV-infected individuals in Durban, South Africa enrolled in the Sizanani Trial (NCT01188941). We used random survival forests to identify 9-month variables and changes from baseline predictive of time to mortality. We incorporated these into a Cox proportional hazards model including age, sex, and starting ART by 9 months a priori, 9-month social support and competing needs, and changes in mental health between baseline and 9 months. Among 1,154 participants with South African ID numbers, 900 (78%) had baseline and 9-month data available of whom 109 (12%) died after 9-month follow up. Those who reported less social support at 9 months had a 16% higher risk of mortality. Participants who went without basic needs or healthcare at 9 months had a 2.6 times higher hazard of death compared to participants who did not. Low social support and competing needs at 9-month follow-up substantially increase long-term mortality risk. Reassessing contextual factors during follow-up and targeting interventions to increase social support and affordability of care may reduce long-term mortality for HIV-infected individuals in South Africa.
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