Potential impact of a ventilation intervention for influenza in the context of a dense indoor contact network in Hong Kong
Potential impact of a ventilation intervention for influenza in the context of a dense indoor contact network in Hong Kong
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.06.179
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发表时间：
2016-11-01
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Li, Yuguo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gao, Xiaolei;Wei, Jianjian;Li, Yuguo
新出现的疾病可能通过密集而庞大的城市接触网络迅速传播。我们构建了一个简单但新颖的双重接触网络模型，以解释人口稠密的香港城市中个人的空中接触和近距离接触。然后将该模型与现有的流行病学易感-暴露-感染-恢复 (SEIR) 模型相结合，我们使用修订后的 Wells-Riley 模型来估计空气传播途径的感染风险，并使用指数剂量反应模型来估计接触和飞沫传播途径的风险。假设通过空气传播途径传播的比例不同，对部分空气传播流感的潜在爆发进行了检查。我们的结果表明，建筑通风在空气传播为主的条件下可以产生显着的影响。而且，即使空气传播途径仅占总感染风险的20%，增加通风量对传播动态也有很大影响，也能达到类似于给病人戴口罩、隔离和疫苗接种的控制效果。 (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. 保留所有权利。
Emerging diseases may spread rapidly through dense and large urban contact networks. We constructed a simple but novel dual-contact network model to account for both airborne contact and close contact of individuals in the densely populated city of Hong Kong. The model was then integrated with an existing epidemiological susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model, and we used a revised Wells-Riley model to estimate infection risks by the airborne route and an exponential dose-response model for risks by the contact and droplet routes. A potential outbreak of partially airborne influenza was examined, assuming different proportions of transmission through the airborne route. Our results show that building ventilation can have significant effects in airborne transmission-dominated conditions. Moreover, even when the airborne route only contributes 20% to the total infection risk, increasing the ventilation rate has a strong influence on transmission dynamics, and it also can achieve control effects similar to those of wearing masks for patients, isolation and vaccination. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.