Benefits and risks of emerging technologies: integrating life cycle assessment and decision analysis to assess lumber treatment alternatives.
Benefits and risks of emerging technologies: integrating life cycle assessment and decision analysis to assess lumber treatment alternatives.
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新兴技术的好处和风险：整合生命周期评估和决策分析来评估木材处理替代方案。
DOI：
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发表时间：
2014
影响因子：
11.4
通讯作者：
I. Linkov
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Michael P. Tsang;M. Bates;M. Madison;I. Linkov
评估新兴技术中的最佳选择（例如，新化学品、纳米技术）的影响是复杂的，因为由于信息有限和分散，难以量化各种利益和风险。本研究展示了多准则决策分析（MCDA）和生命周期评估（LCA）的集成，以解决技术替代选择决策。作为一项案例研究，考虑了六种木材处理替代品[微粉化四元铜（MCQ）、碱性四元铜（ACQ）、水性环烷酸铜（CN）、油性环烷酸铜（CNo）、水性喹啉铜（CQ）和水性环烷酸锌（ZN）]的军事用途优先次序。多属性价值理论（MAVT）用于获得风险和收益评分。使用摇篮到门LCA计算风险评分。效益分数是通过成本、耐久性和腐蚀性标准的评分来计算的。使用了三种加权方案，分别代表环境、军事和平衡利益相关者的观点。所有三个方面的综合评分显示CQ是最不利的替代方案。从环境利益相关者的角度来看，MCQ被认为是最有利的替代方案。从军事利益相关者的角度来看，ZN被确定为最有利的替代方案，其次是MCQ。以系统和透明的方式对多种多样的标准进行这种评分和排序，有助于更好地证明技术选择和监管的合理性。
Assessing the best options among emerging technologies (e.g., new chemicals, nanotechnologies) is complicated because of trade-offs across benefits and risks that are difficult to quantify given limited and fragmented availability of information. This study demonstrates the integration of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) to address technology alternative selection decisions. As a case study, prioritization of six lumber treatment alternatives [micronized copper quaternary (MCQ); alkaline copper quaternary (ACQ); water-borne copper naphthenate (CN); oil-borne copper naphthenate (CNo); water-borne copper quinolate (CQ); and water-borne zinc naphthenate (ZN)] for military use are considered. Multiattribute value theory (MAVT) is used to derive risk and benefit scores. Risk scores are calculated using a cradle-to-gate LCA. Benefit scores are calculated by scoring of cost, durability, and corrosiveness criteria. Three weighting schemes are used, representing Environmental, Military and Balanced stakeholder perspectives. Aggregated scores from all three perspectives show CQ to be the least favorable alterative. MCQ is identified as the most favorable alternative from the Environmental stakeholder perspective. From the Military stakeholder perspective, ZN is determined to be the most favorable alternative, followed closely by MCQ. This type of scoring and ranking of multiple heterogeneous criteria in a systematic and transparent way facilitates better justification of technology selection and regulation.