Warranty assessment of photovoltaic modules based on a degradation probabilistic model
Warranty assessment of photovoltaic modules based on a degradation probabilistic model
复制标题
基于退化概率模型的光伏组件保修评估
DOI：
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
M. Vázquez
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Francisco Prieto;N. Núñez;M. Vázquez
评估产品在保修期内出现故障的概率是估算其整个生命周期成本的关键。光伏 (PV) 模块是光伏系统中最可靠的元件，其高可靠性意味着较长的保修期（通常为 25 至 30 年）。保修期间失效的光伏组件数量以及失效时间是估算光伏组件生命周期成本的重要问题。在本文中，我们提出了光伏组件的耦合退化保修模型。所提出的模型旨在根据退化数据评估保修期内发生故障的概率。这使我们能够估计保修范围内光伏组件故障的时间。尽管保修模型已应用于某些形式的降级和销售功能，但我们的方法可以应用于任何实际应用。这使得可以以简单的方式获得保修的关键参数。履行保修所需的退化参数取决于保修元素的允许比例。然而，降解率对保修影响的主要结论是，如果降解率大于0.8%/年，则不可能满足25年的保修期。如果允许的保证元素在 1% 的范围内，则 25 年保修期所需的降解率值将低于 0.5%/年。
Evaluating the probability of failure of a product during the warranty is key to estimating the cost of its entire life cycle. Photovoltaic (PV) modules are the most reliable elements of a PV system, and their high reliability translates into long warranty periods (typically 25 to 30 years). The number of PV modules that fail during warranty and when they failed is an important issue to estimate the life cycle cost of PV modules. In this paper, we propose a coupled degradation‐warranty model for PV modules. The proposed model is aimed to assess the probability of failure over time covered by warranty based on degradation data. This allows us to estimate the time of PV modules failure covered by the warranty. Although the warranty model has been applied to some forms of degradation and sales functions, our method can be applied to any real application. This allows the key parameters of the warranty to be obtained in a simple way. The required degradation parameters to fulfill warranty depend on the allowable ratio of warranted elements. However, the main conclusion of the influence of degradation rates on warranty is that it is not possible to fulfill 25 years of warranty if degradation rates are larger than 0.8%/year. The required degradation rates values, for 25 years of warranty, will be lower than 0.5%/year if the allowed warranted element is in the range of 1%.