Effects of the tropospheric large‐scale circulation on European winter temperatures during the period of amplified Arctic warming
Effects of the tropospheric large‐scale circulation on European winter temperatures during the period of amplified Arctic warming
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北极变暖加剧期间对流层大尺度环流对欧洲冬季气温的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
J. Overland
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Vihma;R. Graversen;Linling Chen;D. Handorf;N. Skific;J. Francis;Nicholas L. Tyrrell;R. Hall;E. Hanna;P. Uotila;K. Dethloff;A. Karpechko;H. Björnsson;J. Overland
我们调查了 1979 年至 2015 年期间影响欧洲冬季 (DJFM) 气温的因素，重点关注最近北极快速变暖期间（1998 年至 2015 年）的变化。我们采用气象再分析，结合相关分析、两种模式聚类技术和反向轨迹气团识别。在所有五个选定的欧洲地区，持续至少 4 天的严寒冬季事件与北极温暖事件显着相关。在温暖的欧洲/寒冷的北极的相反条件下的关系也很重要。自 1998 年以来，相关性一直变得更强。大规模模式分析表明，寒潮与北大西洋涛动 (NAO-) 的负相位和斯堪的纳维亚 (SCA+) 模式的正相位有关，而这又与干静态能量传输的分歧相关。温暖的欧洲极端天气与这些模式的相反阶段和潜热传输的收敛有关。气团轨迹分析与这些发现一致，因为与极端寒冷事件相关的气团通常起源于大陆，而温暖事件往往发生在盛行的海洋气团中。尽管北极范围内变暖，但由于来自东南部的气团绝热沉降加热减少，以及有利于低温平流的环流模式出现增加，欧洲东北部出现了显着变冷。这些动态效应主导了大多数环流模式平均温度的升高。滞后相关分析表明，SCA- 和 NAO+ 通常在过去 2-3 个月内出现北极寒冷异常，这可能有助于季节性预测。
We investigate factors influencing European winter (DJFM) air temperatures for the period 1979–2015 with the focus on changes during the recent period of rapid Arctic warming (1998–2015). We employ meteorological reanalyses analysed with a combination of correlation analysis, two pattern clustering techniques, and back‐trajectory airmass identification. In all five selected European regions, severe cold winter events lasting at least 4 days are significantly correlated with warm Arctic episodes. Relationships during opposite conditions of warm Europe/cold Arctic are also significant. Correlations have become consistently stronger since 1998. Large‐scale pattern analysis reveals that cold spells are associated with the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO‐) and the positive phase of the Scandinavian (SCA+) pattern, which in turn are correlated with the divergence of dry‐static energy transport. Warm European extremes are associated with opposite phases of these patterns and the convergence of latent heat transport. Airmass trajectory analysis is consistent with these findings, as airmasses associated with extreme cold events typically originate over continents, while warm events tend to occur with prevailing maritime airmasses. Despite Arctic‐wide warming, significant cooling has occurred in northeastern Europe owing to a decrease in adiabatic subsidence heating in airmasses arriving from the southeast, along with increased occurrence of circulation patterns favouring low temperature advection. These dynamic effects dominated over the increased mean temperature of most circulation patterns. Lagged correlation analysis reveals that SCA‐ and NAO+ are typically preceded by cold Arctic anomalies during the previous 2–3 months, which may aid seasonal forecasting.
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影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Yutian Wu;Karen L. Smith
通讯作者：
Yutian Wu;Karen L. Smith
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Screen, James A.
通讯作者：
Screen, James A.
影响因子：
30.7
作者：
Screen, James A.
通讯作者：
Screen, James A.
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1412797111
发表时间：
2014-08-26
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Coumou, Dim;Petoukhov, Vladimir;Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
通讯作者：
Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Dawson, Andrew;Palmer, T. N.
通讯作者：
Palmer, T. N.