Treeline dynamics in Siberia under changing climates as inferred from an individual-based model for Larix
Treeline dynamics in Siberia under changing climates as inferred from an individual-based model for Larix
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.08.003
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发表时间：
2016-10-24
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Herzschuh, Ulrike
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kruse, Stefan;Wieczorek, Mareike;Herzschuh, Ulrike
随着全球变暖，西伯利亚北方森林预计将向北扩张。然而，林线生态交错带转变的过程以及估算和相关的气候反馈仍不清楚。在这里，我们提出了“落叶松植被模拟器”LAVESI，这是一种基于个体的空间显式模型，可以模拟落叶松 (Larixgmelinii (Rupr.) Rupr)。立场动态，试图提高我们对气候变化下过去和未来林线运动的理解。相关过程（生长、种子生产和传播、建立和死亡）被纳入并调整为主要从文献中获得的观察数据。局部敏感性分析的结果通过给出相对较小的敏感性值来支持模型参数化的稳健性。我们通过模拟西伯利亚中北部整个泰米尔半岛（约北纬 64-80 度；东经 92-119 度）现代气候下的树丛来测试该模型。我们发现北部到中部树线区域的树木密度与观察到的森林相似，但模拟区域南部的密度被高估了。最后，通过温度强迫实验，我们发现树木的反应滞后于假设的变暖几十年，直到 21 世纪末。通过模拟实验，我们证明新开发的模型捕捉了西伯利亚纬度林线的动态。 (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. 保留所有权利。
Siberian boreal forests are expected to expand northwards in the course of global warming. However, processes of the treeline ecotone transition, as well astiming and related climate feedbacks are still not understood. Here, we present 'Larix Vegetation Simulator' LAVESI, an individual-based spatially-explicit model that can simulate Larixgmelinii (Rupr.) Rupr. stand dynamics in an attempt to improve our understanding about past and future treeline movements under changing climates. The relevant processes (growth, seed production and dispersal, establishment and mortality) are incorporated and adjusted to observation data mainly gained from the literature. Results of a local sensitivity analysis support the robustness of the model's parameterization by giving relatively small sensitivity values. We tested the model by simulating tree stands under modern climate across the whole Taymyr Peninsula, north-central Siberia (c. 64-80 degrees N; 92-119 degrees E). We find tree densities similar to observed forests in-the northern to mid-treeline areas, but densities are overestimated in the southern parts of the simulated region. Finally, from a temperature-forcing experiment, we detect that the responses of tree stands lag the hypothetical warming by several decades, until the end of 21st century. With our simulation experiments we demonstrate that the newly-developed model captures the dynamics of the Siberian latitudinal treeline. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.