The spillover effects of conflict on economic growth in neighbouring countries in Africa
The spillover effects of conflict on economic growth in neighbouring countries in Africa
复制标题
冲突对非洲邻国经济增长的溢出效应
DOI：
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
O. D. Groot
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
O. D. Groot
本文讨论了冲突对邻国经济的影响。以前的论文的结果表明，在一个饱受冲突之苦的国家周围的整个地区都会受到强烈的负面影响，但本文通过使用更近期的数据并调整先前采用的方法，得出了不同的结论。此外，构造了一种新的连续矩阵，并将其应用于实际分析中。最后的分析包括大量的回归，并得出结论，冲突实际上有两个相反的影响。首先，就像冲突国家本身一样，毗邻的国家实际上也遭受着邻近冲突的负面影响。其次，冲突也会产生积极的溢出效应，它会影响到不相邻的国家，而且离冲突国越近，这种效应越大。这篇论文的结果主要适用于最暴力的冲突。
In this article, the influence of conflict on the economies of neighbouring countries is discussed. The results from previous papers show a strong negative effect for an entire area around a country suffering from conflict, but this paper reaches a different conclusion, by using more recent data and adjusting the methodology previously employed. Additionally, a new type of contiguity matrix is constructed and used in the actual analysis. The final analysis consists of a large number of regressions and concludes that conflict actually has two opposing effects. First, like conflict countries themselves, directly contiguous countries actually suffer from the negative effects of proximate conflict. Secondly, however, there is also a positive spillover of conflict, which affects non-contiguous countries and this effect is larger for countries that are closer to the conflict country. The results from the paper predominantly hold for the most violent kind of conflict.