Can we calculate drought risk ... and do we need to?
Can we calculate drought risk ... and do we need to?
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DOI：
10.1002/wat2.1349
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发表时间：
2019-07-01
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
Leng, Guoyong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hall, Jim W.;Leng, Guoyong
随着全球洪水风险和其他自然灾害模型的迅速发展，人们对全球分析干旱风险的可能性越来越感兴趣。虽然这是一个有吸引力的想法，但我们认为这实际上是不可能的，因为与洪水不同，不可能明确区分“干旱”和“非干旱”事件，特别是在考虑干旱对农业的影响时。对干旱事件的任何定义都取决于干旱指数的选择，这在某种程度上是武断的。尽管如此，缺乏对干旱风险的明确量化估计不一定是合理管理干旱风险的障碍，因为仍有可能评估和比较不同干旱风险管理备选方案的益处。本文分类为：水科学；水极端科学；水与环境变化科学；水方法
There is growing interest in the possibility of global analysis of drought risk, following the rapid development of global models of flood risk and other natural hazards. While this is an attractive idea, we argue that it is not actually possible as, unlike for flooding, it is not possible to unambiguously distinguish between "drought" and "nondrought" events, in particular when considering the impacts of droughts on agriculture. Any definition of a drought event depends upon the choice of drought index, which is to some extent arbitrary. Nonetheless, the absence of unambiguous quantified estimates of drought risk need not be an obstacle to rational drought risk management, as it is still possible to evaluate and compare the benefits of different drought risk management options. This article is categorized under: Science of Water > Water Extremes Science of Water > Water and Environmental Change Science of Water > Methods