The Met Office Weather Game: investigating how different methods for presenting probabilistic weather forecasts influence decision-making
The Met Office Weather Game: investigating how different methods for presenting probabilistic weather forecasts influence decision-making
复制标题
英国气象局天气游戏：调查呈现概率天气预报的不同方法如何影响决策
作者：
E. Stephens;D. Spiegelhalter;K. Mylne;M. Harrison
抽象的。告知概率预测在其上的显示方式
网站上，英国气象局举办了一场在线游戏作为大众参与
实验强调沟通不确定性的最佳方法
降雨和气温预报，并扩大公众参与
天气预报的不确定性。游戏使用了一种假设的“冰淇淋”
“卖家”场景和随机结构，使用不同的方法测试决策能力
代表不确定性并使参与者能够体验到
当最有可能的预测场景没有发生时，“幸运”或“不幸”
发生。收集参与者年龄、性别、教育程度的数据
成就和以前的经验
环境建模。参与人数众多（n>8000）
玩过这个游戏的人整理了一个独特的大型数据集
比较不同个体对决策能力的影响
天气预报演示格式。该分析表明，在
博弈提供了有关预测不确定性的信息
提高决策能力，不会造成情况混乱
提供不确定性时没有添加更多信息。
Abstract. To inform the way probabilistic forecasts would be displayed on their
website, the UK Met Office ran an online game as a mass participation
experiment to highlight the best methods of communicating uncertainty in
rainfall and temperature forecasts, and to widen public engagement in
uncertainty in weather forecasting. The game used a hypothetical “ice-cream
seller” scenario and a randomized structure to test decision-making ability using different methods
of representing uncertainty and to enable participants to experience being
“lucky” or “unlucky” when the most likely forecast scenario did not
occur. Data were collected on participant age, gender, educational
attainment, and previous experience
of environmental modelling. The large number of participants (n>8000)
that played the game has led to the collation of a unique large dataset with
which to compare the impact on the decision-making ability of different
weather forecast presentation formats. This analysis demonstrates that within
the game the provision of information regarding forecast uncertainty greatly
improved decision-making ability and did not cause confusion in situations
where providing the uncertainty added no further information.
可视化火山灰预测：科学家和利益相关者使用不同的图形表示和相互矛盾的预测做出决策
DOI：
10.1175/wcas-d-16-0062.1
发表时间：
2017
期刊：
Weather, Climate, and Society
影响因子：
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作者：
McCloy R
通讯作者：
McCloy R