Brief communication – Impact Forecasting Could Substantially Improve the Emergency Management of Deadly Floods: Case Study July 2021 floods in Germany
Brief communication – Impact Forecasting Could Substantially Improve the Emergency Management of Deadly Floods: Case Study July 2021 floods in Germany
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简短交流 - 影响预测可以显着改善致命洪水的应急管理：案例研究 2021 年 7 月德国洪水
DOI：
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Bruno Merz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
H. Apel;S. Vorogushyn;Bruno Merz
抽象的。洪灾比其他自然灾害影响更多的人，因此洪灾预警和灾害管理至关重要。然而，业务水文预报没有提供有关受影响地区和影响的信息，而只是提供了流量和水位的信息。我们表明，使用现成的数据运行的简单的水动力学模型能够提供关于预期洪水范围和影响的高度局部化的信息，并且模拟时间能够实现运行洪水预警。我们证明，这样的影响预测将在有足够的准备时间的情况下表明2021年西德洪水的致命潜力。
Abstract. Floods affect more people than any other natural hazard, thus flood warning and disaster management are of utmost importance. However, the operational hydrological forecasts do not provide information about affected areas and impact, but only discharge and water levels at gauges. We show that a simple hydrodynamic model operating with readily available data is able to provide highly localized information on the expected flood extent and impacts, with simulation times enabling operational flood warning. We demonstrate that such an impact forecast would have indicated the deadly potential of the 2021 flood in West Germany with sufficient lead time.