Uncertainty of predictions of embankment dam breach parameters
Uncertainty of predictions of embankment dam breach parameters
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DOI：
10.1061/(asce)0733-9429(2004)130:5(389
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发表时间：
2004-05
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
T. Wahl
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
T. Wahl
考虑土石坝溃决的风险评估研究往往需要对溃口的基本几何参数和时间参数进行预测，或估计溃口的洪峰流量。许多最常用于做出这些预测的关系是从对历史上大坝失事收集的数据的统计分析中发展而来的。这些方法的预测不确定性被广泛认为是非常大的，但从未被具体量化。本文分析了许多这种泄流参数和洪峰流量预测方法的不确定性。并以美国垦务局最近对北达科他州一座大型土石坝进行的风险评估为例，说明了该方法的应用和不确定性分析。
Risk assessment studies considering the failure of embankment dams often require the prediction of basic geometric and temporal parameters of a breach, or the estimation of peak breach outflows. Many of the relations most commonly used to make these predictions were developed from statistical analyses of data collected from historic dam failures. The prediction uncertainties of these methods are widely recognized to be very large, but have never been specifically quantified. This paper presents an analysis of the uncertainty of many of these breach parameter and peak flow prediction methods. Application of the methods and the uncertainty analysis are illustrated through a case study of a risk assessment recently performed by the Bureau of Reclamation for a large embankment dam in North Dakota.