Phytoplankton life strategies, phenological shifts and climate change in the North Atlantic Ocean from 1850 to 2100.
Phytoplankton life strategies, phenological shifts and climate change in the North Atlantic Ocean from 1850 to 2100.
复制标题
1850 年至 2100 年北大西洋浮游植物的生命策略、物候变化和气候变化。
DOI：
10.1111/gcb.16709
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Kléparski L
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kléparski L
气候变化引起的重大物候变化预计会在浮游植物群落内发生。然而，当前地球系统模型(ESM)的预测可以理解地依赖于简化的社区反应，这些社区反应没有考虑表现为各种表型和特征组的进化战略。在这里，我们使用基于物种的建模方法，结合大规模的浮游生物观测，研究从1850年到2100年北大西洋三个关键区域(北海、东北大西洋和拉布拉多海)硅藻(按形态特征分组)和甲藻的过去、现在和未来的物候变化。我们的研究表明，在整个北大西洋，这三个浮游植物类群在物候和丰度上表现出一致而不同的变化。大型扁平(即扁平)硅藻的季节性持续时间预计将缩短，其丰度将下降，而缓慢下沉的细长(即扁长)硅藻和甲藻的物候预计将扩大，其丰度将上升，这可能改变这一重要汇区域的碳出口。扁藻和甲藻的增加可能会减轻全球气候变化对扁藻的负面影响，而扁藻是造成春季生物量和碳出口大量高峰期的原因。我们认为，在模型中包括甲藻和甲藻可能会提高我们对全球气候变化对海洋生物碳循环的影响的理解。
Significant phenological shifts induced by climate change are projected within the phytoplankton community. However, projections from current Earth System Models (ESMs) understandably rely on simplified community responses that do not consider evolutionary strategies manifested as various phenotypes and trait groups. Here, we use a species‐based modelling approach, combined with large‐scale plankton observations, to investigate past, contemporary and future phenological shifts in diatoms (grouped by their morphological traits) and dinoflagellates in three key areas of the North Atlantic Ocean (North Sea, North‐East Atlantic and Labrador Sea) from 1850 to 2100. Our study reveals that the three phytoplanktonic groups exhibit coherent and different shifts in phenology and abundance throughout the North Atlantic Ocean. The seasonal duration of large flattened (i.e. oblate) diatoms is predicted to shrink and their abundance to decline, whereas the phenology of slow‐sinking elongated (i.e. prolate) diatoms and of dinoflagellates is expected to expand and their abundance to rise, which may alter carbon export in this important sink region. The increase in prolates and dinoflagellates, two groups currently not considered in ESMs, may alleviate the negative influence of global climate change on oblates, which are responsible of massive peaks of biomass and carbon export in spring. We suggest that including prolates and dinoflagellates in models may improve our understanding of the influence of global climate change on the biological carbon cycle in the oceans.