The Oxford Handbook of Expertise and Democratic Politics
The Oxford Handbook of Expertise and Democratic Politics
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牛津专业知识和民主政治手册
DOI：
10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190848927.013.18
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发表时间：
2023
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Fischbacher-Smith D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Fischbacher-Smith D
本章认为，有一个悖论面临的使用风险分析，即准确评估风险的需求可以看出，超过了提供有效的计算实践，有足够的预测有效性，需要支持政策决策的能力。在实际意义上，风险往往具有各种不同的含义，这加剧了这一问题。事实证明，风险问题--作为可衡量的不确定性--在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间尤其成问题，当时政策制定者和技术专家之间的紧张关系导致公众对病毒相关危害的性质以及相关缓解策略产生分歧。本章最后指出，只有当组织和决策者都接受并承认内在的不确定性时，风险分析核心的悖论才能得到解决，这些不确定性往往是他们试图量化根本形式的不确定性的核心。
This chapter argues that there is a paradox facing the use of risk analysis, whereby the demand for accurate assessments of risk can be seen to exceed the ability to supply effective calculative practices that have sufficient predictive validity needed to support policy decisions. This problem is exacerbated by the various meanings that are often ascribed to risk in a practical sense. The issue of risk—as measurable uncertainty—has proved to be especially problematic during the Covid-19 pandemic, when the tensions between policymakers and technical experts has led to public disagreements about the nature of the hazards associated with the virus and the associated strategies for mitigation. The chapter concludes by arguing that the paradox at the core of risk analysis can only be addressed if organizations and policy makers both accept and acknowledge the inherent uncertainties that often lie at the core of their attempts to quantify radical forms of uncertainty.