Improving the representation of adaptation in climate change impact models.
Improving the representation of adaptation in climate change impact models.
复制标题
改善气候变化影响模型中适应的表征。
DOI：
10.1007/s10113-018-1328-4
复制
发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Holman IP
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Holman IP
适应气候变化是一个复杂的人类过程，受到不确定性和制约因素的影响，难以在现有评估模型中体现。由于缺乏对适应过程及其与模型的相关性的系统描述，改善模型表示的尝试受到阻碍。本文回顾了科学文献，探讨气候变化适应的概念化和模型，以及如何提高模型中适应的代表性。审查表明，现实世界的适应性反应可以区分沿着一些方面，包括意图或目的，时间尺度，空间规模，受益者和提供者，行动类型和部门。然而，气候变化对土地利用和水资源管理影响的模型目前对这些方面的覆盖率很低，而是以人为和主观的方式模拟适应。虽然不同的建模方法确实捕捉了适应过程的不同方面，但它们是在相对孤立的情况下完成的，没有产生改进的统一表示。此外，适应往往被认为是客观、有效和长期一致的，只有少数模型考虑到支持适应措施选择的人类决定（14%）、激励行动的触发因素（38%）或可能限制其采用和有效性的时滞和制约因素（14%）。没有任何模式包括利用气候变化的有利机会的适应。基于这些见解，可转移的建议，为未来的模型开发，可能会提高模型内的现实主义，同时也推进我们的适应气候变化的过程和有效性的理解方向。
Climate change adaptation is a complex human process, framed by uncertainties and constraints, which is difficult to capture in existing assessment models. Attempts to improve model representations are hampered by a shortage of systematic descriptions of adaptation processes and their relevance to models. This paper reviews the scientific literature to investigate conceptualisations and models of climate change adaptation, and the ways in which representation of adaptation in models can be improved. The review shows that real-world adaptive responses can be differentiated along a number of dimensions including intent or purpose, timescale, spatial scale, beneficiaries and providers, type of action, and sector. However, models of climate change consequences for land use and water management currently provide poor coverage of these dimensions, instead modelling adaptation in an artificial and subjective manner. While different modelling approaches do capture distinct aspects of the adaptive process, they have done so in relative isolation, without producing improved unified representations. Furthermore, adaptation is often assumed to be objective, effective and consistent through time, with only a minority of models taking account of the human decisions underpinning the choice of adaptation measures (14%), the triggers that motivate actions (38%) or the time-lags and constraints that may limit their uptake and effectiveness (14%). No models included adaptation to take advantage of beneficial opportunities of climate change. Based on these insights, transferable recommendations are made on directions for future model development that may enhance realism within models, while also advancing our understanding of the processes and effectiveness of adaptation to a changing climate.