A BAYESIAN ANALYSIS TO ESTIMATE LOSS IN SQUID CATCH DUE TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF A SEA LION POPULATION MANAGEMENT PLAN
A BAYESIAN ANALYSIS TO ESTIMATE LOSS IN SQUID CATCH DUE TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF A SEA LION POPULATION MANAGEMENT PLAN
复制标题
贝叶斯分析估计因实施海狮种群管理计划而导致的鱿鱼捕获量损失
DOI：
10.1111/j.1748-7692.2000.tb00933.x
复制
发表时间：
2000
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
R. Hilborn
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Maunder;P. Starr;R. Hilborn
这项研究估计的影响海狮（Phocarctos hookeri）的人口管理计划对海狮人口和相关的鱿鱼（Nototodarus sloanii）渔业。管理计划的目标是重建海狮种群，并涉及在捕获海狮达到阈值水平时关闭鱿鱼渔业。阈值水平计算从广义模拟分析，保守地允许适当的人口重建一些不同的物种和人口。我们的分析使用贝叶斯理论来描述不确定性的海狮种群的网站和鱿鱼渔获量下的管理计划的实施。先验代表了这一特定的海狮种群，分析代表了预期，而不是计算安全捕鱼相关死亡率的保守水平。结果表明，鱿鱼渔获量是非常敏感的鱿鱼渔业是否关闭时，超过阈值水平的海狮副渔获物。海狮的数量对鱿鱼渔业的关闭不太敏感。对于一个经济上重要的渔业，需要估计渔获量损失和海狮数量增加的不确定性，以便就海狮养护和充分开发渔业之间的权衡作出明智的决策。
This study estimates the effect of a sea lion (Phocarctos hookeri) population management plan on both the sea lion population and the associated squid (Nototodarus sloanii) fishery. The goal of the management plan is to rebuild the sea lion population and involves closing the squid fishery when a threshold level of sea lions have been caught. The threshold level is calculated from a generalized simulation analysis which conservatively allows for adequate population rebuilding for a number of different species and populations. Our analysis uses Bayesian theory to describe uncertainty in the sea lion population site and squid catch under the implementation of the management plan. The priors represent this particular sea lion population, and the analysis represents expectation rather than calculating conservative levels of safe fishing-related mortality. The results show that the squid catch is very sensitive to whether or not the squid fishery is closed when it exceeds the threshold level for sea lion bycatch. The sea lion population size is much less sensitive to the closure of the squid fishery. For an economically important fishery, the estimates of uncertainty in both loss of catch and increase in sea lion population are needed to allow informed decision-making about trade-offs between sea lion conservation and full exploitation of the fishery.