Scenario-based fertility projections incorporating impacts of COVID-19
Scenario-based fertility projections incorporating impacts of COVID-19
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DOI：
10.1002/psp.2546
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发表时间：
2021-12-29
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Kulu, Hill
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Berrington, Ann;Ellison, Joanne;Kulu, Hill
本文研究了过去十年中英国各组成国家近期生育期生育率的下降，并推测了COVID-19大流行可能影响英国生育的机制。影响可能因年龄和是否有孩子而异。考虑到对不同年龄和家庭规模的个人产生影响的潜在力量，我们预计2019冠状病毒病大流行将降低生育率，尤其是年轻人的生育率。由于在大流行爆发之前，所有年龄段的生育率都在下降，这可能意味着英国的时期生育率进一步下降到历史最低水平。我们提出了若干设想，以审查大流行对活产人数可能产生的影响。我们的预测显示，在四种情况中，有三种情况的生育率预计将在未来三年下降，导致每年的出生人数与大流行前相比大幅减少。
This paper examines the recent declines in period fertility in the constituent countries of the UK during the past decade and speculates mechanisms through which the COVID-19 pandemic could influence childbearing in the UK. The effects are likely to differ by age and presence of children. Considering potential forces acting on individuals at different ages and family sizes, we expect that the COVID-19 pandemic will depress fertility, particularly among younger people. Because fertility at all ages was declining before the onset of the pandemic, this could mean a further decline in period fertility to historically low UK levels. We put forward a number of scenarios to examine the possible impact of the pandemic on numbers of live births. Our projections show that for three scenarios out of four, fertility is expected to decline over the next 3 years, leading to significantly fewer births annually compared with the pre-pandemic period.