Probability theory of capacity value of additional generation
Probability theory of capacity value of additional generation
复制标题
新增发电容量值概率论
DOI：
10.1177/1748006x11418288
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Chris Dent
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Zachary;Chris Dent
本文提出了一种新的电力系统附加发电能力值的概率理论。导出了小附加能力的有效承载能力或等效固载能力的封闭表达式。这取决于可用额外发电能力分布的均值和方差，以及可用现有发电能力和需求之间差值分布的形状，接近零裕度。该理论自然扩展到预先存在的背景和额外资源在统计上不独立的情况。该理论可以用来解释和证实容量值结果的各种众所周知的性质的普遍性，如英国的例子所示。特别值得注意的是，通常的观察是，如果需求的分布发生变化，以增加计算的风险，那么额外发电的容量价值就会增加。这一新理论表明，通常情况下并非如此，而是现有发电量超过需求的边际概率分布接近于零边际的结果。
This paper describes a new probability theory of the capacity value of additional generation in electrical power systems. A closed-form expression for the effective load carrying capability or equivalent firm capacity of a small additional capacity is derived. This depends on the mean and variance of the distribution of available additional generation capacity, and the shape of the distribution of the difference between available existing capacity and demand, near zero margin. The theory extends naturally to the case where the pre-existing background and additional resource are not statistically independent. The theory may be used to explain and confirm the generality of various well-known properties of capacity value results, as is illustrated using Great Britain examples. Of particular note is the common observation that if the distribution for demand is shifted so as to increase the calculated risk, then the capacity value of additional generation increases. The new theory demonstrates that this is not true in general, but rather is a consequence of the shape near zero margin of the probability distribution of the margin of existing generating capacity over demand.