Aggregate Employment Effects of Unemployment Benefits During Deep Downturns: Evidence from the Expiration of the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation
Aggregate Employment Effects of Unemployment Benefits During Deep Downturns: Evidence from the Expiration of the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation
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深度经济衰退期间失业救济金对就业的总体影响：来自联邦流行病失业救济金到期的证据
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Arindrajit Dubé
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Arindrajit Dubé
联邦流行病失业补偿金 (FPUC) 规定的每周 600 美元失业救济金临时增加到期后，在新冠疫情衰退期间就业正在复苏之际，替代率急剧、史无前例地下降了 98 个百分点（平均）。利用各州之间这种下降的巨大差异，我使用双重差分事件研究设计来估计宏观就业影响。我发现福利减少对就业增长的影响很小，特别是当我关注由大多数 UI 领取者组成的群体（非大学毕业生和非高收入家庭）时。这些估计排除了现有文献中大部分微观失业保险期限弹性所暗示的就业增长。
The expiration of the temporary $600 boost to weekly UI benefits under the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (FPUC) led to a sharp, unprecedented, 98 percentage point reduction (on average) in the replacement rate during a time when employment was recovering during the Covid recession. Leveraging the considerable variation in this drop across states, I use a difference-in-differences event study design to estimate the macro employment effects. I find little impact of job gains from the benefit reduction, especially when I focus on groups (non-college graduates, and those from non-high-income households) that comprise of most UI recipients. The estimates rule out job gains implied by much of the micro UI duration elasticities from the existing literature.