A century of social wasp occupancy trends from natural history collections: spatiotemporal resolutions have little effect on model performance
A century of social wasp occupancy trends from natural history collections: spatiotemporal resolutions have little effect on model performance
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DOI：
10.1111/icad.12494
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发表时间：
2021-03-30
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Isaac, Nick J. B.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jonsson, Galina M.;Broad, Gavin R.;Isaac, Nick J. B.
目前缺乏长期的昆虫种群趋势是保护的主要障碍。占用模型已被提出作为一种解决方案，但目前尚不清楚它们是否能从自然历史收藏中得出长期趋势，因为标本记录通常非常稀少。稀疏数据的一种常见方法是粗化其空间和/或时间分辨率，尽管粗化有违反模型假设的风险。（膜翅目：胡蜂科：Vespinae）物种-常见的黄蜂（Vespula vulgaris），德国黄蜂（德国胡蜂）和欧洲大黄蜂（Vespa crabro）-在1900年至2016年期间在英格兰发生了变化，以及（ii）使用非常稀疏的数据测试时空分辨率对占用模型性能的影响。所有的模型都是基于一个集成的数据集的发生记录和自然历史收集标本records.We表明，占用模型可以产生长期的物种特定的趋势，从非常稀疏的自然历史收集标本。我们提出了第一个定量趋势的三种胡蜂在英格兰超过116年。Vespula vulgaris和V. germanica在时间序列上表现出稳定的趋势，而V. crabro的占有率从1950年到1970年下降，自1970年以来增加。此外，我们表明，时空分辨率对模型性能的影响不大，虽然粗化的空间颗粒是一个适当的方法，以实现足够的记录，以估计长期的changes.With生物记录的可用性不断增加，这里使用的模型配方有可能提供新的见解，利用自然历史收藏的独特的标本组合。
The current dearth of long-term insect population trends is a major obstacle to conservation. Occupancy models have been proposed as a solution, but it remains unclear whether they can yield long-term trends from natural history collections, since specimen records are normally very sparse. A common approach for sparse data is to coarsen its spatial and/or temporal resolution, although coarsening risks violating model assumptions.We (i) test whether occupancy trends of three social wasp (Hymenoptera: Vespidae: Vespinae) species - the common wasp (Vespula vulgaris), the German wasp (Vespula germanica) and the European hornet (Vespa crabro) - have changed in England between 1900 and 2016, and (ii) test the effect of spatiotemporal resolution on the performance of occupancy models using very sparse data. All models are based on an integrated dataset of occurrence records and natural history collection specimen records.We show that occupancy models can yield long-term species-specific trends from very sparse natural history collection specimens. We present the first quantitative trends for three Vespinae species in England over 116 years. Vespula vulgaris and V. germanica show stable trends over the time series, whilst V. crabro's occupancy decreased from 1950 to 1970 and increased since 1970. Moreover, we show that spatiotemporal resolution has little effect on model performance, although coarsening the spatial grain is an appropriate method for achieving enough records to estimate long-term changes.With the increasing availability of biological records, the model formulation used here has the potential to provide novel insights by making use of natural history collections' unique specimen assemblages.