Limits on the Space Launch Market Related to Stratospheric Ozone Depletion
Limits on the Space Launch Market Related to Stratospheric Ozone Depletion
复制标题
与平流层臭氧消耗相关的航天发射市场的限制
DOI：
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发表时间：
2009
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Patrick Ross
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Ross;D. Toohey;Manfred Peinemann;Patrick Ross
固体火箭发动机（SRM）和液体火箭发动机（LRE）以不同的能力消耗全球臭氧层。我们估计全球臭氧消耗的火箭作为有效载荷发射率和SRM和LRE火箭排放的相对混合的函数。目前，全球火箭发射消耗的臭氧层为0.03%，与其他臭氧消耗物质造成的消耗相比微不足道。随着航天工业的发展和臭氧消耗物质从平流层中消失，火箭造成的臭氧消耗可能会变得很严重。这就提出了以保护臭氧层的名义对空间发射系统进行管制的可能性。我们对火箭发动机造成的臭氧损失的理解存在很大的不确定性，这使得发射系统可能被限制在每年几十万吨的水平，与拟议的空间系统（如航天飞机，空间太阳能和空间反射器）的发射要求相当，以减轻气候变化。由于保护臭氧层的特殊监管而可能对发射系统造成限制，这对空间工业发展构成了风险。在开发低成本、高飞行速率发射系统的经济理由方面，风险尤其严重。
Solid rocket motors (SRMs) and liquid rocket engines (LREs) deplete the global ozone layer in various capacities. We estimate global ozone depletion from rockets as a function of payload launch rate and relative mix of SRM and LRE rocket emissions. Currently, global rocket launches deplete the ozone layer ∼0.03%, an insignificant fraction of the depletion caused by other ozone depletion substances (ODSs). As the space industry grows and ODSs fade from the stratosphere, ozone depletion from rockets could become significant. This raises the possibility of regulation of space launch systems in the name of ozone protection. Large uncertainties in our understanding of ozone loss caused by rocket engines leave open the possibility that launch systems might be limited to as little as several tens of kilotons per year, comparable to the launch requirements of proposed space systems such as spaceplanes, space solar power, and space reflectors to mitigate climate change. The potential for limitations on launch systems due to idiosyncratic regulation to protect the ozone layer present a risk to space industrial development. The risk is particularly acute with regard to the economic rationale to develop low-cost, high flight rate launch systems.