Has The Era Of Slow Growth For Prescription Drug Spending Ended?
Has The Era Of Slow Growth For Prescription Drug Spending Ended?
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DOI：
10.1377/hlthaff.2015.1636
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发表时间：
2016-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9.7
通讯作者：
Maini, Luca
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Aitken, Murray;Berndt, Ernst R.;Maini, Luca
在2005- 2013年期间，美国处方药市场的平均年增长率仅为1.8%，以发票价格为基础（即以不变美元计算，在制造商回扣和折扣之前）的真实的计算。但在2014年，这一增长率大幅提高，当时市场规模扩大了11.5万亿美元，这引发了人们对未来趋势的质疑。我们确定了制造商的回扣和折扣对价格的影响，并确定了可能影响未来十年处方支出的潜在因素。这些措施包括加强创新渠道;批发商，药房福利管理人员和健康保险公司等买家之间的整合;以及专利侵权事件的发生率降低，这意味着进入市场的成本较低的仿制药替代品将比过去更少。虽然各种预测表明，制药支出增长将从2014年的水平放缓，但买家和卖家之间的商业紧张关系可能会以许多不同的方式发挥作用。这表明，未来的支出趋势仍然高度不确定。
In the period 2005-13 the US prescription drug market grew at an average annual pace of only 1.8 percent in real terms on an invoice price basis (that is, in constant dollars and before manufacturers' rebates and discounts). But the growth rate increased dramatically in 2014, when the market expanded by 11.5 percent-which raised questions about future trends. We determined the impact of manufacturers' rebates and discounts on prices and identified the underlying factors likely to influence prescription spending over the next decade. These include a strengthening of the innovation pipeline; consolidation among buyers such as wholesalers, pharmacy benefit managers, and health insurers; and reduced incidence of patent expirations, which means that fewer less costly generic drug substitutes will enter the market than in the recent past. While various forecasts indicate that pharmaceutical spending growth will moderate from its 2014 level, the business tension between buyers and sellers could play out in many different ways. This suggests that future spending trends remain highly uncertain.