Discovering Dependencies, Trade-Offs, and Robustness in Joint Dam Design and Operation: An Ex-Post Assessment of the Kariba Dam
Discovering Dependencies, Trade-Offs, and Robustness in Joint Dam Design and Operation: An Ex-Post Assessment of the Kariba Dam
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DOI：
10.1029/2019ef001235
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发表时间：
2019-12-21
期刊：
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
Reed, P. M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bertoni, F.;Castelletti, A.;Reed, P. M.
在全球范围内，许多国家正在积极寻求最大限度地发挥主要河流流域的水电潜力，并提出了在不久的将来建造约3 700座大型水坝的建议。目前，经济成本效益分析是评价候选大坝设计的主要方法。然而，他们通常未能探索大坝设计和运行的相互依存关系，（一）货币化和聚合潜在的冲突和异构的目标到一个单一的指标，（ii）使用预定义的操作规则，旨在最大限度地提高具体的性能目标的大坝设计。仔细考虑备选水库运行方案有助于避免在确定最佳水坝规模方面的偏差，同时也有助于澄清其适应不断变化的水文气候条件和人类需求的能力。本文提出了一个集成的框架，以解决耦合大坝规模和运行设计问题。该框架结合了多目标鲁棒决策和进化多目标直接策略搜索到一个新的方法，大坝规模，内在的操作设计问题，并明确考虑外部驱动程序的不确定性。通过对赞比西河流域卡里巴大坝的事后设计分析，我们证明了这种综合大坝设计框架的潜力。我们的研究结果表明，仔细探索的耦合规划/操作搜索空间产生的设计，显着优于现有的卡里巴系统。此外，我们还证明了我们的框架可以显著降低资本成本（即，更小的水库尺寸），同时提高系统在水文气候变化和人类灌溉需求方面的鲁棒性。
Globally, many countries are actively seeking to maximize the hydropower potential of major river basins, yielding proposals for constructing approximately 3,700 major dams in the near future. At present, economic cost-benefit analyses are the dominant approach for evaluating candidate dam designs. Yet they typically fail to explore the interdependence of dam design and operation by (i) monetizing and aggregating potentially conflicting and heterogeneous objectives into a single metric and (ii) using predefined operating rules aimed at maximizing specific performance objectives for the dams to be designed. Careful consideration of alternative reservoir operating schemes can help to avoid biases in how optimal dam sizes are identified while also clarifying their capacity to adapt to changing hydroclimatic conditions and human demands. This paper presents an integrated framework to solve coupled dam sizing and operation design problems. The framework combines Multiobjective Robust Decision Making and Evolutionary Multiobjective Direct Policy Search into a novel approach to dam sizing, which internalizes the operation design problem and explicitly considers uncertainty in external drivers. We demonstrate the potential of this integrated dam design framework through an ex-post design analysis of the Kariba dam in the Zambezi river basin. Our results show that careful exploration of the coupled planning/operation search space yields designs that significantly outperform the existing Kariba system. Moreover, we demonstrate that our framework leads to a significant reduction in capital costs (i.e., smaller reservoir sizes) while simultaneously improving system robustness with respect to changing hydroclimatology and human irrigation demands.