Antarctic sea ice increase consistent with intrinsic variability of the Amundsen Sea Low
Antarctic sea ice increase consistent with intrinsic variability of the Amundsen Sea Low
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DOI：
10.1007/s00382-015-2708-9
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发表时间：
2016-04
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
J. Turner;J. Hosking;G. Marshall;T. Phillips;T. Bracegirdle
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Turner;J. Hosking;G. Marshall;T. Phillips;T. Bracegirdle
利用耦合模式相互比较项目第5阶段（CMIP 5）的大气资料、ECMWF中期再分析场和Bootstrap第2版算法处理的被动微波卫星资料，研究了大气环流变率与南极海冰范围（SIE）近期趋势之间的关系。在1979-2013年期间，南极SIE年平均总量以195 × 103 km 2dec −1（1.6% dec−1）的速度增加，p< 0.01。年平均SIE的最大区域正趋势为119 × 103 km 2dec-1（4.0%dec-1），出现在罗斯海部分。在南极洲西部，SIE的趋势与近地面风的趋势之间存在高度相关性。罗斯海SIE的季节性趋势全年都是积极的，但春季最大。阿蒙森海低压（ASL）的加深驱动了罗斯海上空较强的纬向气流。CMIP 5的工业前控制和历史模拟表明，所观察到的ASL加深和罗斯海上空更强的南风流在模拟的固有变率范围内。春季趋势需要再持续11年，才能超出90%模拟中的2个标准差范围。
We investigate the relationship between atmospheric circulation variability and the recent trends in Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) atmospheric data, ECMWF Interim reanalysis fields and passive microwave satellite data processed with the Bootstrap version 2 algorithm. Over 1979–2013 the annual mean total Antarctic SIE increased at a rate of 195 × 103km2dec−1(1.6 % dec−1),p< 0.01. The largest regional positive trend of annual mean SIE of 119 × 103km2dec−1(4.0 % dec−1) has been in the Ross Sea sector. Off West Antarctica there is a high correlation between trends in SIE and trends in the near-surface winds. The Ross Sea SIE seasonal trends are positive throughout the year, but largest in spring. The stronger meridional flow over the Ross Sea has been driven by a deepening of the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL). Pre-industrial control and historical simulations from CMIP5 indicate that the observed deepening of the ASL and stronger southerly flow over the Ross Sea are within the bounds of modeled intrinsic variability. The spring trend would need to continue for another 11 years for it to fall outside the 2 standard deviation range seen in 90 % of the simulations.