Probabilistic space weather forecast of the relativistic electron flux enhancement at geosynchronous orbit
Probabilistic space weather forecast of the relativistic electron flux enhancement at geosynchronous orbit
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jastp.2007.08.066
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发表时间：
2008-02
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Y. Miyoshi;R. Kataoka
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Y. Miyoshi;R. Kataoka
根据每日降水概率天气预报的概念，为地球同步轨道相对论电子概率空间天气预报开发了一种操作技术。本文以流界面的到达时间作为共转相互作用区的前兆，绘制了地球同步轨道上相对论电子通量增强的概率图，其概率定义为日最大通量超过NOAA警戒水平的事件数。根据即将到来的流的两个基本参数，构建与流界面相关的概率图，以实现高效的概率预测;太阳风速度是否高于平均水平（500公里/秒），以及行星际磁场属于哪个扇形极性，根据所谓的“春天走向衰落”规则。
An operational technique has been developed for a probabilistic space weather forecast of relativistic electrons at geosynchronous orbit, following a concept of a daily precipitation probabilistic weather forecast. In this paper, we use the arrival time of stream interfaces as a precursor of corotating interaction regions to make the probability diagram for flux enhancement of relativistic electrons at geosynchronous orbit, and the probability is defined by the number of events with the daily maximum flux above the NOAA alert levels. The probability diagram associated with the stream interfaces is constructed to achieve an efficient probabilistic forecast, based on the two fundamental parameters of oncoming streams; whether the solar wind speed is higher than average (500km/s) or not, and which sector polarities the interplanetary magnetic field belongs to, according to the so-called “Spring-Toward Fall-Away” rule.