Demand Forecast of Petroleum Product Consumption in the Chinese Transportation Industry
Demand Forecast of Petroleum Product Consumption in the Chinese Transportation Industry
复制标题
中国交通运输业成品油消费需求预测
DOI：
10.3390/en5030577
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发表时间：
2012-03
期刊：
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Guo, Ju'e
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chai, Jian;Wang, Shubin;Wang, Shouyang;Guo, Ju'e
本文分析了我国交通运输业石油产品（主要是汽油和柴油）的消费情况。基于贝叶斯线性回归理论和马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗方法（MCMC），建立了以城市化水平、人均GDP、旅客（货物）周转量（TPA、TFA）和民用汽车保有量（CVN）为解释变量，以汽油和柴油消费量为解释变量的汽油和柴油消费需求预测模型。此外，本文还基于1985 - 2009年的历史数据，对“十二五”（2011-2015年）期间成品油消费需求进行了预测，发现城市化是影响成品油消费的最敏感因素，城市化对成品油消费的边际影响很大。从预测区间值的角度看，城市化表示预测结果的下限，CVN表示预测结果的上限。其他自变量的预测值均在预测值范围内，为决策者提供了更为可信的验证范围和参考标准。最后，自回归综合移动平均模型（ARIMA）和其他预测结果之间的比较，以评估我们的任务。
In this paper, petroleum product (mainly petrol and diesel) consumption in the transportation sector of China is analyzed. This was based on the Bayesian linear regression theory and Markov Chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC), establishing a demand-forecast model of petrol and diesel consumption introduced into the analytical framework with explanatory variables of urbanization level, per capita GDP, turnover of passengers (freight) in aggregate (TPA, TFA), and civilian vehicle number (CVN) and explained variables of petrol and diesel consumption. Furthermore, we forecast the future consumer demand for oil products during “The 12th Five Year Plan” (2011–2015) based on the historical data covering from 1985 to 2009, finding that urbanization is the most sensitive factor, with a strong marginal effect on petrol and diesel consumption in this sector. From the viewpoint of prediction interval value, urbanization expresses the lower limit of the predicted results, and CVN the upper limit of the predicted results. Predicted value from other independent variables is in the range of predicted values which display a validation range and reference standard being much more credible for policy makers. Finally, a comparison between the predicted results from autoregressive integrated moving average models (ARIMA) and others is made to assess our task.
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