Tornado Fatalities: An Environmental Perspective
Tornado Fatalities: An Environmental Perspective
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DOI：
10.1175/waf-d-19-0119.1
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发表时间：
2019-12-01
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Brooks, Harold
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Anderson-Frey, Alexandra K.;Brooks, Harold
致命的龙卷风是罕见事件，但其罕见程度因许多因素而异。在这项工作中，我们总结和更新了过去关于龙卷风死亡的研究，并从邻近探测（即基于点）和自组织地图（即二维）的角度讨论了致命龙卷风的环境。在我们对 2003 年至 2017 年 16 232 起龙卷风事件的研究中，我们发现致命的龙卷风极有可能具有高 (E)F 级等级、具有向右移动的超级单体母风暴模式（致命的 QLCS 龙卷风极其罕见，发生时往往只会导致一人死亡），并且发生在冬季和春季。致命龙卷风的预警技能通常高于非致命龙卷风：87% 的致命龙卷风提前发出预警，近 95% 的龙卷风死亡事件发生在主动预警期间。相同的环境对致命和非致命龙卷风都有很好的警告，但致命龙卷风往往发生在不利于较弱 (E)F0-1 龙卷风的环境中。我们使用自组织地图确定了四种典型的致命龙卷风情景，范围从导致相对较少死亡的边缘环境到重大致命爆发事件。总体结果表明，最危险的龙卷风（即每次致命龙卷风造成大量死亡的龙卷风）通常也发生在预警能力较高的环境和条件下。一般来说，虽然会发出正确的风暴警告，但我们也提出了一些额外研究和进一步改进的建议。
Deadly tornadoes are rare events, but that level of rarity varies with many factors. In this work, we summarize and update past research on tornado fatalities, and also discuss the environments of deadly tornadoes both from the perspective of proximity soundings (i.e., point-based) and self-organizing maps (i.e., two-dimensional). In our study of 16 232 tornado events from 2003 to 2017, we find that deadly tornadoes are disproportionately likely to have high (E)F-scale ratings, to have right-moving supercell parent storm modes (deadly QLCS tornadoes are exceptionally rare and tend to result in only one death when they do occur), and to occur during the winter and spring. Warning skill is generally higher for deadly tornadoes than for nondeadly tornadoes: 87% of deadly tornadoes were warned in advance, and nearly 95% of tornado deaths occurred within an active warning. The same environments are warned well for both deadly and nondeadly tornadoes, but the deadly tornadoes tend to occur in environments that are less conducive to weaker (E)F0-1 tornadoes. We identify four prototypical deadly tornado scenarios using self-organizing maps, ranging from marginal environments resulting in relatively few fatalities to major deadly outbreak events. Overall results indicate that the most dangerous tornadoes (i.e., those with high numbers of deaths per deadly tornado) also generally occur in environments and under conditions in which warning skill is high. While, generally speaking, the correct storms are being warned, we include some recommendations for additional research and further improvement.