Engineered Resilience for Complex Systems as a Predictor for Cost Overruns
Engineered Resilience for Complex Systems as a Predictor for Cost Overruns
复制标题
复杂系统的工程弹性作为成本超支的预测
作者：
Blake Roberts;T. Mazzuchi;S. Sarkani
大规模、无处不在的系统和网络化的系统（SoS）的复杂性不断增加，给系统工程和项目管理带来了非线性挑战，例如影响设计和开发成本的相互依赖、动态和紧急行为。为了投资、决策和有效管理技术开发，“应该成本”估计用于将系统基线确定为整个生命周期内可负担的水平。除了超支的可能性更高之外，复杂的系统传统上需要重大的收购、预算和开发计划，其中故障会导致成本增加。行为特性（如涌现）会影响性能，从而对网络平台操作、系统能力和使命有效性产生动态和不可预测的影响。从526个主要武器项目和主题专家判断中分析的数据被探索，以提出：（1）使用与复杂性、适应性和弹性相关的规定性措施来量化这些风险的新方法，（2）确定主要指标，以减少成本超支的可能性，（3）根据研究结果和系统分析提出测量建议，以改善生命周期成本估计，以及（4）提出工程弹性的应用，以满足日益增长的复杂性，相互依赖性和系统规模在有限的预算与日益增长的需求负担得起的。
The ever‐increasing complexity of large‐scale, ubiquitous systems, and internetworked Systems of Systems (SoS), have resulted in non‐linear challenges for systems engineering and program management such as interdependent, dynamic, and emergent behaviors that influence design and development cost. In order to invest, make decisions, and effectively manage technology developments, “should‐cost” estimates are used to baseline systems to what is considered affordable over the lifecycle. In addition to a higher likelihood for overrun, complex systems traditionally require major acquisitions, budgets, and development schedules where failure results in increased cost consequences. Behavioral properties (such as emergence) can influence performance resulting in dynamic and unpredictable effects on networked platform operation, system capability, and mission effectiveness. Data analyzed from 526 major weapons programs and from subject‐matter expert judgment are explored to propose: (1) a new approach to quantify these risks using prescriptive measures related to complexity, adaptability, and resilience, (2) identify leading indicators to reduce the likelihood of cost overrun, (3) suggest measurements based on research findings and systems heuristics to improve lifecycle cost estimation, and (4) present applications of Engineering Resilience to meet the growing complexity, interdependence, and scale of systems under constrained budgets with a growing demand for affordability.