The gambler's fallacy and gender
The gambler's fallacy and gender
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赌徒谬误与性别
DOI：
10.1016/j.jebo.2011.06.017
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发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
J. Tyran
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Suetens;J. Tyran
“赌徒谬误”是一种错误的信念，认为最近发生过的随机事件不太可能发生。如果事件的开始实际上独立于先前的事件，那么这种信念就是错误的。我们使用丹麦国家彩票的数据来研究赌徒谬误中的性别差异。我们的数据集是独一无二的，因为我们跟踪个人玩家随着时间的推移，这使我们能够调查男性和女性如何对他们最近的彩票抽奖结果做出反应。我们在男性身上发现了赌徒谬误的证据，但在女性身上却没有。平均而言，男性对前一周抽出的数字下注的可能性比未抽出的数字下注的可能性低1%左右。女性对前一周的抽签结果反应不明显。
The “gambler's fallacy” is the false belief that a random event is less likely to occur if the event has occurred recently. Such beliefs are false if the onset of events is in fact independent of previous events. We study gender differences in the gambler's fallacy using data from the Danish state lottery. Our data set is unique in that we track individual players over time which allows us to investigate how men and women react with their number picking to outcomes of recent lotto drawings. We find evidence of gambler's fallacy for men but not for women. On average, men are about 1% less likely to bet on numbers drawn in the previous week than on numbers not drawn. Women do not react significantly to the previous week's drawing outcome.