Mass Reaction to Regime Change in Eastern Europe: Polarization or Leaders and Laggards?
Mass Reaction to Regime Change in Eastern Europe: Polarization or Leaders and Laggards?
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对东欧政权更迭的大规模反应：两极分化还是领导者和落后者？
DOI：
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发表时间：
1994
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
W. Mishler
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Rose;W. Mishler
制度变迁发生在宏观和微观两个层面。在东欧，在制度一级发生了全面的变化，但在微观一级，个人的反应可能不同，有些人赞成新制度，有些人赞成旧制度，从而形成了新制度的支持者和反对者的集合体。把对新旧政权的反应结合起来，就形成了民主派、反动派、怀疑派和顺从派。在保加利亚、捷克斯洛伐克、匈牙利、波兰和罗马尼亚进行的全国性调查显示，民主党人在受访者中占绝对多数。如果目前的分歧持续下去，那么东欧将在政治上两极分化。社会结构和经济态度对个人对政权更迭的反应的影响的统计检验强调了社会经济评估的重要性。但数据也显示，大多数目前不支持多元化政权的人预计在可预见的未来会这样做;他们是落后者而不是反民主者。此外，未来的支助水平如此之高，可能足以抵御新政权经济状况的波动。
Regime changes occur at two levels, the macro and the micro. In Eastern Europe there has been holistic change at the regime level, but at the micro level individuals can differ in their reactions, some favouring the new and some preferring the old regime, thus creating aggregates of supporters and opponents of the new regime. Combining reactions to the old and new regimes results in a typology of democrats, reactionaries, sceptics and the compliant. Nationwide surveys in Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland and Romania show that democrats overall are a bare majority of the respondents. If current divisions persist, then East Europeans will be politically polarized. Statistical tests of the influence of social structure and economic attitudes upon individual responses to regime change emphasize the importance of sociotropic economic assessments. But the data also show that most who do not currently support the pluralist regime expect to do so in the foreseeable future; they are laggards rather than anti-democrats. Moreover, the level of future support is so high that it is likely to be proof against fluctuations in the economic conditions of the new regimes.