Effects of sampling design on the probability to detect soil carbon stock changes at the Swiss CarboEurope site Lägeren
Effects of sampling design on the probability to detect soil carbon stock changes at the Swiss CarboEurope site Lägeren
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.geoderma.2008.12.018
复制
发表时间：
2009-03
期刊：
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
A. Heim;L. Wehrli;W. Eugster;M. Schmidt
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Heim;L. Wehrli;W. Eugster;M. Schmidt
土壤碳储量变化是我们试图理解和量化陆地碳汇作用的一个重要因素。不幸的是，土壤中有机碳储量的空间变异性很大，使其分析量化变得复杂。在一个异质性森林网站，我们进行了一项试点研究，以估计是否选择一个合适的抽样设计减少了库存估计的不确定性，在一定程度上，允许在合理的时间内检测碳储量的变化。母质对土壤碳储量有很大的影响，母质类别的分层取样将矿质土壤顶部10 cm的碳储量估计误差从3.1 t C ha− 1减少到1.7 t C ha−1。我们估计，用配对抽样方法取代非配对抽样方法可以将库存变化的检测限提高约四倍。尽管有这些改进，我们估计，如果土壤碳固存以当前碳循环模型预测的速率（0.43 t C ha−1a−1）发生，则需要大约15年才能检测到顶部10 cm的碳储量变化。
Soil carbon stock changes are an important element in our attempt to understand and quantify the role of terrestrial carbon sinks. Unfortunately, the large spatial variability of organic carbon stocks in soils complicates their analytical quantification. At a heterogeneous forest site, we conducted a pilot study to estimate whether the choice of a suitable sampling design reduces the uncertainty of the stock estimate to an extent that permits the detection of carbon stock changes within a reasonable time period. Parent material had a strong effect on soil carbon stocks and stratified sampling of parent material classes reduced the error of the carbon stock estimate for the top 10 cm of the mineral soil from 3.1 to 1.7 t C ha−1. We estimated that replacing an unpaired sampling approach by a paired sampling approach could improve the detection limit of stock changes approximately by a factor of four. Despite these improvements, we estimate that about 15 years will be necessary to detect carbon stock changes in the top 10 cm if soil carbon sequestration occurs at the rate (0.43 t C ha−1a−1) predicted by current carbon cycle models.